RAYUSDT Market Overview: Key Resistance Broken, Volatility Cues Signal Uncertainty

• Raydium/Tether (RAYUSDT) declined by 6.3% over 24 hours, closing below key support at $2.75.
• A bearish engulfing pattern and declining volume signaled weakening bullish momentum.
• RSI hit oversold territory, while Bollinger Bands tightened, indicating potential for a rebound or continuation.
• Turnover spiked after 20:00 ET on 2025-09-23, aligning with the largest downward move.
• Fibonacci 61.8% support at $2.71 tested and failed, opening the door to $2.649.

Raydium/Tether (RAYUSDT) opened at $2.807 on 2025-09-23 at 12:00 ET and fell to an intraday low of $2.649 before closing at $2.787 on 2025-09-24 at 12:00 ET. Total 24-hour volume was 1,950,122.2 and notional turnover reached $5.53M, reflecting significant price swings and activity.

The 15-minute chart showed a distinct bearish breakdown from $2.807 to $2.649, with a key support at $2.75 failing decisively. A bearish engulfing pattern was visible on 2025-09-23 19:00–19:15 ET, confirming a shift in sentiment. A doji appeared on 2025-09-24 04:30–04:45 ET near $2.727, hinting at indecision. The 20-period moving average fell below the 50-period, reinforcing the bearish bias.

MACD lines turned negative midday on 2025-09-23 and remained bearish, while RSI dropped to oversold levels at 27.5, suggesting potential short-term bounce. Bollinger Bands tightened significantly around $2.74–2.76 on 2025-09-24 04:00–05:00 ET, signaling a potential breakout. Price found itself near the lower band for most of the session, indicating high volatility and a bearish bias. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $2.71 offered temporary support but failed to hold.

Raydium/Tether faced strong selling pressure through the early morning hours, with the largest 15-minute volume spike at 2025-09-23 19:00–19:15 ET (78,502.7 units), coinciding with a price drop from $2.769 to $2.754. This was followed by another large volume period at 2025-09-24 04:30–04:45 ET (176,526.1 units), aligning with the price drop to $2.72. Despite the high volume, the price failed to close back above $2.75 or $2.80, indicating bearish exhaustion or possible rejection at key levels. A divergence between volume and price appeared around 2025-09-24 07:00–07:15 ET when price moved higher with relatively weak volume, signaling possible short-term weakness.

The 50-period daily moving average currently stands at $2.79, above the 100-period at $2.80, and the 200-period at $2.82. This indicates a longer-term bearish trend. On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA fell below the 50-period MA, reinforcing the short-term bearish bias. Price may attempt a retest of the $2.75–2.76 range in the next 24 hours, though a breakdown below $2.70 could open the door to $2.649. Investors should watch for a potential bearish continuation if RSI stays below 40 and volume remains elevated.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy could be built around the bearish engulfing pattern and RSI oversold condition observed during the 24-hour period. Entering a short position at the close of the engulfing candle (2025-09-23 19:15 ET at $2.754) and exiting upon a close above $2.75 or a positive divergence in RSI could test the validity of the pattern. A stop-loss at $2.77–2.78 would protect against a false breakdown. Given the volume confirmation and alignment with Fibonacci levels, this approach has merit, though it carries risk if the price rebounds.