RAYUSDT Market Overview: Deep Correction and Volatility Expansion

• Price declined sharply from $3.40 to $3.13, with a 24-hour low at $3.122
• Volatility expanded during the drop, with wide-ranging bearish candlesticks
• RSI moved into oversold territory while MACD showed bearish momentum
• Heavy volume confirmed the bearish move, with turnover surging at lower levels
• Short-term support at $3.18–$3.20, with possible pullback potential ahead

Raydium/Tether (RAYUSDT) opened at $3.381 at 12:00 ET - 1 and fell to a 24-hour low of $3.122, closing at $3.167 at 12:00 ET. Total volume reached 1,864,517.2 units with a notional turnover of $5,932,293.40, showing strong bearish conviction during the decline. The drop was supported by increasing volume and momentum divergence, suggesting a potential exhaustion of the downward move.

The structure of the 24-hour candlestick sequence revealed a strong bearish bias, with a series of large bearish bodies and a key breakdown below the $3.30 psychological level. A strong bearish engulfing pattern was visible at $3.40–$3.275 during the early morning hours, followed by a sharp breakdown at $3.275. Key support levels have formed at $3.18–$3.22 and $3.34–$3.36, with the 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart now bearish and trending downward. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 200-period MAs are also in a bearish alignment, reinforcing the medium-term downtrend.

Momentum indicators reflected diverging signals. The MACD showed a bearish crossover with a wide histogram, while RSI plunged to 28, entering oversold territory. However, divergence occurred as price continued to fall while RSI flattened, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce. Bollinger Bands expanded during the selloff, with price dropping to the lower band multiple times, indicating heightened volatility and a possible reversion to the mean in the near term.

Volume surged during the breakdown from $3.30 to $3.20 and remained elevated through the $3.18–$3.12 range. This suggests strong bearish conviction at lower levels, though recent volume has moderated slightly. Fibonacci retracement levels at 38.2% ($3.25) and 61.8% ($3.19) are now acting as potential pivot points. If the price fails to break below $3.18, a short-term rebound may follow, though bearish momentum could reassert if $3.16–$3.15 is tested.

Backtest Hypothesis
The observed bearish breakdown and RSI overextension suggest a potential mean reversion trade on a pullback into the $3.20–$3.25 range. A backtest strategy could involve entering a long position at a 10% retracement of the recent leg down, with a stop below the previous swing low of $3.16 and a target at $3.30. This approach leverages Fibonacci levels, RSI divergence, and volume exhaustion signals to identify a high-probability short-term reversal opportunity. The strategy would rely on the price finding near-term support and reacting positively to the oversold condition, as indicated by the current technical environment.