RAYUSDT Market Overview: 2025-10-05

• Price surged from $2.80 to $3.058 before retreating to $2.944 by close.
• High-volume bullish breakout above $2.92 confirmed by 15-minute candlestick expansion.
• RSI overbought during rally but corrected below 60, indicating moderation in momentum.
• Volatility expanded significantly with high turnover during 05:00–09:00 ET window.
• Price appears to consolidate near 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from recent high.

Raydium/Tether (RAYUSDT) opened at $2.804 on October 4 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of $3.058 before closing at $2.944 at 12:00 ET October 5. The 24-hour period saw a total volume of 1,142,250.8 and a notional turnover of $3,171,768.3 (based on the given OHLCV data).

Structure & Formations

Price experienced a sharp bullish breakout above $2.92 in early ET hours, forming a strong engulfing candle at 05:00–05:15 ET, followed by a corrective phase. A bearish reversal pattern emerged near $3.058 as the price fell into a consolidation phase, finding support near $2.94–$2.95. A key support level appears forming around $2.915–$2.92, while resistance is now concentrated at $3.00–$3.01, with a potential higher-order resistance near $3.03.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed above $2.93 during the early ET rally, confirming a bullish trend. However, by late morning, the 20-period MA has pulled back slightly below the 50-period, suggesting short-term profit-taking. On the daily timeframe, the 50-period MA is around $2.87, and the 200-period MA at $2.83, supporting a longer-term bullish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned positive during the 05:00–06:00 ET period, peaking at a bullish signal line crossover, then slowly declining as price corrected. RSI spiked over 70 during the morning rally, indicating overbought conditions, but has since pulled back to a neutral range of ~55, suggesting easing momentum. A divergence between price and RSI was noted in the late morning, implying potential for a pullback.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the morning hours, with the upper band reaching $3.07 and the lower band near $2.89. Price briefly touched the upper band during the early ET rally and pulled back inside the bands. The narrowing of the bands in the late afternoon suggests a potential for a breakout or continuation pattern. Price is currently within the bands, with moderate volatility.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 05:00–06:30 ET window, coinciding with the bullish breakout above $2.92, and again in the afternoon as price consolidated. Notional turnover also increased sharply during the morning rally and dipped during the afternoon correction. Price and volume appear to align well during the breakout phase, with confirmation in the 05:15–06:15 ET window. A divergence appeared in the late morning, where price made a high but volume declined, suggesting weakening momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent 15-minute swing from $2.804 to $3.058, the 38.2% retracement level is at $2.947 and the 61.8% at $2.912. The current price is near the 38.2% level, suggesting a potential pause or consolidation. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement from the prior month’s high is at $2.97, which may offer resistance on a breakout.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could leverage the breakout above the $2.92 level observed on the 15-minute chart, using a stop-loss at the prior swing low near $2.87 and a take-profit target at $3.058 or the 61.8% retracement at $2.912. This approach would be best suited for a high-frequency scalping or short-term trading style, with entries confirmed by bullish candlestick patterns and RSI divergence. The strategy would benefit from using a trailing stop during strong momentum phases, as seen in the early ET rally.