Is Raymond James Financial (RJF) a Buy After Its Golden Cross Signal and Positive Earnings Momentum?

Raymond James Financial (RJF), a stalwart in the financial services sector, has recently captured investor attention with a technical and fundamental convergence that could signal a strategic entry point. In July 2025, the stock's 50-day simple moving average (SMA) crossed above its 200-day SMA—a so-called “golden cross”—while earnings estimates have seen consistent upward revisions. This combination of bullish technical and fundamental signals raises an important question: Is now the time to buy?

The Golden Cross: A Technical Catalyst

A golden cross occurs when a stock's short-term moving average (typically 50 days) surpasses its long-term moving average (200 days). This pattern is historically associated with trend reversals and sustained upward momentum. For RJF, the crossover occurred as the 50-day SMA reached $152.74, outpacing the 200-day SMA of $151.16. Over the past four weeks, the stock gained 9.3%, validating the technical signal.

The golden cross is further reinforced by complementary indicators. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) approached overbought territory at 74.77, suggesting strong short-term buying pressure. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showed a widening histogram, signaling accelerating bullish momentum. Bollinger Bands also painted a compelling picture: the stock's price broke through the upper band, a rare occurrence that often precedes extended rallies.

Earnings Momentum: A Fundamental Backing

Technical signals alone rarely justify a trade. However, RJF's recent fundamental performance provides robust support. Analysts have upgraded their Q2 2025 earnings per share (EPS) estimates 7 times in the last 7 days and 8 times in the past 30 days. The current consensus estimate stands at $2.80 per share, with no downgrades recorded in the past two months. This upward revision reflects growing confidence in the firm's ability to navigate macroeconomic challenges and capitalize on its diversified financial services model.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate, a weighted average of analyst forecasts, has also increased, aligning with the technical optimism. While the Zacks Rank for RJF is currently at #3 (Hold), the positive earnings revisions and strong technical setup suggest the stock may be primed for a breakout.

Strategic Entry Point: Balancing Risk and Reward

The convergence of a golden cross and favorable earnings revisions creates a rare alignment of technical and fundamental signals. For investors, this raises the question of timing. A golden cross often marks the beginning of a trend, but it also carries risks—particularly if the rally is overextended. RJF's RSI nearing overbought levels (74.77) indicates caution is warranted, though it also suggests the stock has room to run if earnings meet or exceed expectations.

Institutional support adds another layer of confidence. Major firms like Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, JPMorgan Chase, and Citigroup have upgraded their price targets, with an average of $168.64. This consensus suggests that even if the stock faces short-term volatility, the long-term trajectory is likely upward.

Conclusion: A Buy for the Right Investor

Raymond James Financial presents a compelling case for a strategic entry point. The golden cross, supported by robust technical indicators and a surge in earnings optimism, creates a favorable risk-reward profile. However, investors should remain mindful of the RSI's proximity to overbought levels and the potential for a consolidation phase. A disciplined approach—using the golden cross as a catalyst but waiting for a pullback or confirmation of earnings strength—could mitigate risk while capturing upside potential.

For those with a medium-term horizon and a tolerance for volatility, RJF appears to be a buy. The key will be monitoring the stock's ability to sustain its momentum beyond the initial crossover and whether Q2 earnings validate the upward revisions. In a market where technical and fundamental signals often diverge, their current alignment makes RJF an intriguing opportunity.