Raymond James' 2026 Stock Picks: Why These 5 High-Conviction Names Outperform AI-Driven Giants

The stock market in 2025 is at a crossroads. After years of AI-driven euphoria, investors are beginning to question whether the valuations of tech titans like NVIDIA, Alphabet, and Microsoft are sustainable. According to a report by Masonboro Advisors, NVIDIA's revenue surged from $27 billion in 2022 to $96 billion in 2025, yet its $4.3 trillion market cap now reflects a level of optimism that may outpace fundamentals. In this environment, Raymond James has taken a contrarian stance, spotlighting five stocks that prioritize value, diversification, and sector resilience in non-AI domains. These picks-DoorDash, Shake Shack, Intercontinental Exchange, Lexeo Therapeutics, and Phathom Pharmaceuticals-offer a compelling counter-narrative to the AI-centric playbook.

The Case for Value: DoorDash and Shake Shack

Raymond James' emphasis on value is epitomized by its strong buy ratings for DoorDash and Shake Shack. DoorDash, a leader in the on-demand delivery sector, is navigating a transition from a high-growth disruptor to a platform with diversified revenue streams. Analysts at Raymond James highlight the company's recent acquisition of Deliveroo as a catalyst for long-term growth, despite near-term margin pressures from increased competition and delivery costs. With a $325 price target, the firm argues that DoorDash's investments in logistics optimization and international expansion justify its valuation, even as AI-driven delivery startups struggle to scale profitably.

Shake Shack, meanwhile, represents a classic value play. After a recent pullback, the stock trades at a discount to its $150 price target, offering investors exposure to a resilient consumer discretionary sector. Raymond James analysts note that the chain's unit economics remain robust, with margins poised to improve as same-store sales rebound and new locations open in high-traffic urban markets. This contrasts sharply with AI-driven consumer tech firms, which often trade at multiples that assume perpetual growth.

Sector Resilience: Intercontinental Exchange and the Energy-Mortgage Cycle

In financial services, Raymond James has identified Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) as a beneficiary of two secular trends: the energy transition and the cyclical recovery in mortgage origination. ICE's energy futures trading platforms are gaining traction as global markets grapple with the volatility of renewable energy adoption and geopolitical supply shocks. Simultaneously, the firm is capitalizing on a rebound in mortgage activity, driven by refinancing demand as interest rates stabilize. With a $210 price target, Raymond James argues that ICE's dual exposure to these resilient sectors provides a buffer against macroeconomic headwinds that could weigh on AI-centric tech stocks.

Biotech's Untapped Potential: Lexeo and Phathom

The firm's biotech selections-Lexeo Therapeutics and Phathom Pharmaceuticals-underscore its focus on innovation outside the AI spotlight. Lexeo's gene therapy, LX2006, is in pivotal trials for Friedreich's ataxia cardiomyopathy, a rare but severe condition with limited treatment options. Raymond James analyst Christopher Raymond cites Phase I/II data showing significant cardiac function improvements, positioning the therapy for regulatory fast-tracking. A $25 price target implies a 137% upside, reflecting the firm's confidence in Lexeo's ability to capture market share in a niche but high-margin space.

Phathom Pharmaceuticals, meanwhile, is leveraging its potassium-competitive acid blocker, Voquezna, to disrupt the gastrointestinal drug market. The drug's rapid adoption-evidenced by a 30% year-over-year revenue increase-has drawn Raymond James' attention, with a $28 price target suggesting a 57% upside. Unlike AI-driven biotech firms that rely on speculative pipeline data, Phathom's success is rooted in tangible prescription growth and a well-established therapeutic category.

Contrasting AI's Overvaluation

The strategic rationale for these picks becomes clearer when juxtaposed with the AI sector's current valuation dynamics. As stated by SOFI, NVIDIA, Alphabet, and Microsoft collectively command a market cap of $11.2 trillion, yet their earnings growth has begun to lag behind their price multiples. For instance, NVIDIA's $96 billion revenue in 2025, while impressive, must now justify a price-to-sales ratio of over 45x-a level that assumes perpetual dominance in AI hardware. In contrast, Raymond James' picks trade at more conservative multiples, offering a margin of safety in a market increasingly wary of speculative overreach.

Conclusion: Diversification as a Strategic Imperative

Raymond James' 2026 portfolio reflects a disciplined approach to diversification, spanning delivery, consumer discretionary, financial services, and biotech. By steering clear of the AI hype cycle, the firm is betting on sectors with tangible cash flows and structural growth drivers. As the market matures, this strategy may prove more sustainable than chasing the next AI darling. In a post-hype environment, value, resilience, and sector breadth-not just algorithmic prowess-will define the winners of 2026.