Raydium/Tether (RAYUSDT) Market Overview

• RAYUSDT declined by 3.3% over the past 24 hours, closing near a key support level.
• RSI and MACD signaled bearish momentum with bearish divergence in volume.
• Volatility expanded during a late-night sell-off, breaking below a 1.67 psychological level.
• Bollinger Bands widened as prices moved toward the lower band, indicating heightened pressure.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed during the early morning trading session.

The Raydium/Tether (RAYUSDT) pair opened at 1.67 on 2025-11-01 at 12:00 ET and closed at 1.667 at the same time the next day. The price reached a high of 1.693 and a low of 1.626, registering a total volume of approximately 547,359. The 24-hour notional turnover was estimated at $866,737 (assuming 1 USDT = $1). The pair experienced a prolonged bearish bias as a late-night sell-off pushed prices below critical support levels and confirmed a bearish momentum shift.

The structure of the 15-minute chart showed a clear breakdown from a recent resistance level at 1.685, which was previously holding strong. A key bearish engulfing pattern appeared around 05:00 ET on 2025-11-02, where a large bearish candle opened at 1.681 and closed at 1.676, engulfing the prior bullish candle. This pattern, combined with the break of the 1.67 psychological level, signaled a potential shift in sentiment. Support appears to be forming at 1.653, which is also a Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level from the recent high. Resistance levels now sit at 1.677 and 1.685, respectively.

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The RSI dropped below 40 and is currently hovering near 35, suggesting oversold conditions, but without a clear reversal pattern, the momentum remains bearish. The MACD line crossed below the signal line in the late hours of 2025-11-01, confirming the bearish divergence. The indicator stayed negative for most of the 24-hour period, showing that bears have maintained control. Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the sell-off, with prices touching the lower band at the 1.626 level. This expansion in volatility may signal a temporary exhaustion in the downward move, though without a strong reversal, the pair could continue testing the support levels.

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Backtest Hypothesis
The bearish engulfing pattern observed on the 15-minute chart at 05:00 ET could serve as a valid short-term entry signal, assuming it occurs on high volume and is confirmed by a close below the engulfing candle's low. A backtesting strategy could be built around identifying such patterns on the 15-minute chart and entering short positions at the next candle’s open with a stop-loss placed above the engulfing candle’s high and a target aligned with the nearest Fibonacci support level. This approach would be tested with a dataset spanning from 2022-01-01 to the current date, with exits placed on the close of the next candle. Given the recent behavior of RAYUSDT, this strategy may provide early sell signals during volatile bearish swings, though it would require further refinement to adapt to varying volatility and liquidity conditions.

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Looking ahead, the next 24 hours may bring renewed selling pressure if the 1.653 support level fails, with a potential target near 1.637. However, a strong rebound could test the 1.677 level, offering a temporary reversal opportunity. Investors should remain cautious and monitor volume and RSI for signs of exhaustion or reversal.