Raydium [RAY] Surges 25% Post Upbit Listing, Whale Activity Raises Concerns

Raydium [RAY] experienced a significant surge, rising by over 25% following its listing on South Korea’s Upbit exchange. This event sparked intense retail interest and heightened volatility, with RAY briefly reaching $2.30 before settling at $2.24 at the time of reporting. However, this rally was accompanied by several red flags that suggest potential fragility in the market.

A whale deposited 906,788 RAY, valued at $2.26 million, into Binance shortly after the pump. This move hints at potential distribution, raising concerns about the sustainability of the rally. On-chain and sentiment data further paint a fragile picture, with momentum potentially fading faster than it appeared.

Funding Rates remained nearly flat at +0.01% across derivatives markets despite RAY’s sharp upward move. Normally, such price action would attract aggressive longs and inflate rates. However, the stagnation suggests that leveraged traders stayed cautious, unwilling to bet on follow-through. If funding turns negative, it could indicate that bears are beginning to regain control, signaling indecision rather than support for sustained bullish pressure.

Social metrics for RAY hit multi-week highs, with Social Dominance reaching 0.458% and Social Volume climbing to 22 mentions. This reflected an influx of retail interest driven by the high-profile listing. However, hype-driven rallies often lack staying power unless reinforced by fundamentals. Crowd interest alone may push prices briefly higher, but it usually fades unless followed by strong network growth. Therefore, the sustainability of the pump depends on whether this attention can convert into actual long-term holder engagement.

While the buzz around RAY grew louder, holders started exiting. The MVRV Long/Short Difference dropped to -30.84%, indicating that most short-term holders were no longer in profit. This sharp drop means that the likelihood of immediate sell pressure diminishes, as fewer traders are incentivized to cash out. However, it also suggests that momentum traders have likely exited, potentially weakening short-term volume.

RAY hovered near $2.24 after rebounding from the $1.90–$2.10 Demand Zone, a range that previously sparked bullish recoveries. However, the follow-through feels less certain this time. Momentum indicators still leaned positive, giving buyers a technical edge. If bulls fail to build on the bounce, price could slide below $2.00, flipping old support into resistance. The $2.10 mark now stands as a critical line, and holding it may be the only way to keep hopes of reclaiming the $3.40 April high alive.

Price-to-DAA divergence has plunged to -51.7%, showing a major disconnection between price action and network activity. When price growth far outpaces New Address creation, the risk of a reversal increases. This suggests that RAY’s recent move may be speculative rather than adoption-driven. In past cycles, similar divergence levels preceded cooling phases or reversals. Therefore, without a corresponding rise in user activity, the rally risks losing credibility and triggering a return to previous support levels.

In conclusion, RAY’s 25% rally, fueled by its Upbit listing, has attracted strong interest. However, multiple indicators suggest caution. Whale deposits, weak funding, and poor address activity signal underlying fragility. Unless real demand and network traction kick in, RAY could cool off just as quickly as it pumped.