Is Raydium ($RAY) Poised for a $4 Breakout in the Near Term?

Raydium’s ($RAY) recent price action has ignited speculation about a potential breakout to $4.00, driven by a confluence of technical indicators, derivatives market dynamics, and on-chain activity. This analysis evaluates whether the token’s fundamentals and market positioning align with such a move, focusing on key resistance levels, open interest trends, and funding rate fluctuations.

Technical Indicators Signal Bullish Momentum

RAY has recently broken out of a symmetrical triangle pattern, a classic technical formation that often precedes directional price movement. This breakout, coupled with a Relative Strength Index (RSI) above the 50-neutral threshold, suggests growing bullish momentum [2]. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) further reinforces this narrative, with the main line trading above the signal line—a clear buy signal [1].

Key resistance levels now loom at $3.55, $3.80, and $4.00, while support is anchored near $3.15 and a historical range of $2.85–$3.25 [4]. A clean breakout above $3.80 could accelerate the price toward $4.00, but traders must watch for liquidity clusters at $3.60 and $3.80, which could trigger short-term retracements if the price falters [4].

Derivatives Market Positioning Validates Bullish Bias

Derivatives data paints a compelling picture of speculative optimism. Open interest (OI) for RAY has surged to $11.98 million, reflecting heightened activity in leveraged positions [3]. Short liquidations have also spiked, indicating that bearish traders are being squeezed out of the market—a classic precursor to a sustained rally [4].

Funding rates for RAY’s perpetual futures contracts provide additional insight. The annualized rate of 2.82% suggests longs are dominating the market, as higher funding rates incentivize short-term holders to maintain bullish positions [3]. Recent fluctuations, including a jump from 0.0050% to 0.0138% in late August 2025, highlight dynamic sentiment shifts but remain within a bullish range [1].

On-Chain and Ecosystem Fundamentals Strengthen the Case

On-chain metrics reinforce the technical and derivatives signals. Transfer volume and active addresses have surged, signaling growing user engagement [2]. Meanwhile, Raydium’s deflationary strategies—such as its buyback program, which has removed 9.5% of the 30-day average exchange volume—create a structural tailwind for price stability [5].

The platform’s integration with Solana’s Firedancer upgrade further enhances its appeal, promising improved scalability and liquidity [5]. With 27.11% of Solana’s DEX volume in January 2025, Raydium’s dominance in its ecosystem remains robust [2].

Risks and Challenges to Consider

While the case for a $4.00 breakout is strong, risks persist. Liquidity clusters at $3.60 and $3.80 could act as gravitational anchors, requiring sustained buying pressure to overcome [4]. Additionally, a recent dip to $3.28 tested key support levels, with whale accumulation observed at lower prices [5]. Traders should monitor whether spot buyers maintain dominance or if short-term volatility disrupts the upward trajectory.

Conclusion

Raydium’s technical indicators, derivatives positioning, and on-chain fundamentals collectively support a bullish outlook. A breakout above $3.80 could catalyze a move toward $4.00, particularly if short liquidations continue to outpace longs and open interest remains elevated. However, liquidity dynamics and market sentiment remain critical variables. For now, the data suggests RAY is well-positioned to test—and potentially surpass—$4.00 in the near term.

Source:
[1] Raydium technical analysis — Daily Updates [https://www.bitget.com/price/raydium/technical]
[2] Raydium RAY Price: Key Insights, Technical Analysis, and [https://www.okx.com/en-us/learn/raydium-ray-price-analysis-growth]
[3] Raydium Price, RAY to USD, Research, News & Fundraising [https://messari.io/project/raydium]
[4] Assessing Raydium's latest breakout - Can RAY's price find [https://ambcrypto.com/assessing-raydiums-latest-breakout-can-rays-price-find-its-way-to-4-target]
[5] Latest Raydium (RAY) News Update [https://coinmarketcap.com/cmc-ai/raydium/latest-updates/]