Ravencoin/Tether (RVNUSDT) Market Overview – 24-Hour Candlestick Analysis

Summary
• Price opened at $0.01036, traded between $0.00985–$0.01052, and closed at $0.00989.
• Volatility expanded mid-session, with a notable bearish reversal at 21:45 ET.
• Volume surged near 100M RVN, while turnover remained mixed, indicating active but cautious trading.

Ravencoin/Tether (RVNUSDT) opened at $0.01036 (12:00 ET − 1) and closed at $0.00989 (12:00 ET) after a volatile 24-hour session. The price touched a high of $0.01052 and a low of $0.00985. Total volume reached approximately 100.8 million RVN, while total turnover amounted to around $11.5 million during the period.

The 15-minute chart shows a bearish breakdown after 21:45 ET, marked by a long lower shadow and a declining close. Key support appears to be forming near $0.00993, with a potential resistance cluster around $0.01028–$0.01033. A bearish engulfing pattern is visible in the 21:45–22:00 ET timeframe, signaling potential continuation of the downtrend.

Moving Averages and Trend

On the 15-minute chart, the price closed below both 20-EMA and 50-EMA, indicating short-term bearish momentum. Daily averages (50/100/200) remain divergent, with the 50-DMA crossing below 100-DMA, suggesting medium-term weakening. The trend appears to favor sellers for now, though a retest of key levels could trigger a rebound.

MACD & RSI – Momentum and Oversold Conditions

MACD shows a bearish crossover with the histogram contracting, aligning with the weakening price action. RSI is approaching oversold territory (~32), suggesting potential for a short-term bounce. However, the divergence between RSI and price indicates caution—momentum may not yet be strong enough to reverse the bearish trend.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility expanded significantly during the late evening session, with the price trading near the lower Bollinger band most of the time. A sharp contraction is observed before 08:00 ET, followed by a breakout toward the downside. This suggests traders are becoming more bearish, with the price likely to remain within the band’s lower half for the near term.

Volume and Turnover Dynamics

Volume surged past 100M RVN during the 16:15–16:45 ET window, coinciding with a sharp price decline. Notional turnover, however, remained mixed, with no clear confirmation of a breakout. A bearish divergence appears in the volume profile after 21:00 ET, indicating distribution rather than accumulation.

Fibonacci Retracements and Key Levels

On a 15-minute swing from $0.01036 to $0.00985, 61.8% retracement sits at $0.01009, which could offer a potential bounce point. Daily retracements from the recent high of $0.01052 to the low of $0.00985 place key levels at $0.01017 (38.2%) and $0.01001 (61.8%). A break of $0.00993 could trigger deeper retest of $0.00985.

Backtest Hypothesis

The MACD Death Cross backtest for RVNUSDT from 1 Jan 2022 to 12 Nov 2025 identified 52 such events, with average returns modestly negative in the initial 20 trading days. Win rates hovered near 40–46%, and no statistically significant abnormal returns were observed. This weak signal suggests that while the pattern occasionally aligns with short-term bearish moves, it lacks robust predictive power on its own. A mild mean-reversion effect appears after ~22 days, but again, it remains statistically insignificant. Traders might consider combining MACD signals with other indicators like RSI or volume to improve filtering.

The market appears to be consolidating after a sharp decline into the overnight hours, with key support levels under pressure. A test of $0.00993–$0.00985 is likely in the next 24 hours, with RSI nearing oversold territory offering a potential near-term rebound. However, bearish momentum remains intact, and a breakdown below $0.00990 could accelerate further losses. Investors should monitor volume for any signs of accumulation or capitulation.