Ramaco Resources A Soars 8.5% on $100M Buyback Plan: Is This the Catalyst for a New Bull Run?

Summary
• Ramaco Resources A (METC) surges 8.47% to $18.32, marking its strongest intraday rally since 2023.
• The company unveils a $100 million stock repurchase program, signaling confidence in undervaluation and liquidity.
• Technical indicators show a short-term bullish trend amid a long-term range-bound pattern.
• Sector peers like Peabody Energy (BTU) lag with a 0.87% gain, highlighting METC’s outperformance.
Today’s explosive move in METC is driven by a strategic capital return plan and a technical setup poised for a breakout. With the stock trading near its 52-week low of $6.30, the buyback announcement has reignited investor optimism about the company’s balance sheet strength and rare earths potential.

Share Repurchase Plan Ignites Investor Optimism
Ramaco’s $100 million buyback program, announced on December 23, directly triggered today’s 8.47% surge. The program, which allows repurchasing up to 9.7% of outstanding shares over 24 months, signals management’s belief in the stock’s undervaluation. CEO Randall Atkins emphasized the company’s $600+ million capital raises in H2 2025 as a foundation for value creation. The move aligns with broader market trends where buybacks often boost investor sentiment by reducing share supply and demonstrating financial discipline. With the stock trading at a 72% discount to its 52-week high of $57.80, the buyback provides a clear catalyst for near-term momentum.

Coal Sector Mixed as METC Outperforms Peabody Energy
While METC’s 8.47% gain dwarfs the sector’s performance, Peabody Energy (BTU), the sector leader, rose 0.87% on the day. The disparity highlights METC’s unique positioning as a dual-play critical mineral and coal producer. Unlike traditional coal peers, Ramaco’s rare earths discovery in Wyoming and its advanced carbon research pipeline differentiate it. The coal sector faces broader headwinds from decarbonization policies, but METC’s strategic buyback and rare earths narrative position it to outperform in a market increasingly focused on resource scarcity and geopolitical supply chain risks.

Options and ETFs to Capitalize on METC’s Bullish Momentum
• 200-day average: 19.06 (below current price)
• RSI: 50.05 (neutral)
• MACD: -2.02 (bullish histogram)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at 18.32 vs. upper band 17.99 (overbought)
• Support/Resistance: 30D support at 16.05, 200D support at 8.59
• Key Levels: 18.50 (intraday high), 16.60 (intraday low)
• Leveraged ETFs: Invesco Dorsey Wright Energy Momentum ETF (PXI) up 0.04%, State Street SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) down 0.41%
• Short-Term Outlook: The stock is testing its 200-day average and faces immediate resistance at $18.50. A break above this level could trigger a retest of the 52-week high. The Invesco Energy Momentum ETF (PXI) offers a leveraged play on the sector’s potential rebound.
• Top Option 1: METC20260116C18
- Strike: $18, Expiration: 2026-01-16, IV: 113.15%, Leverage: 8.58%, Delta: 0.56, Theta: -0.0527, Gamma: 0.0754, Turnover: 7,244
- IV (113.15%): High volatility suggests strong market expectations.
- Leverage (8.58%): Amplifies gains if the stock moves.
- Delta (0.56): Moderate sensitivity to price changes.
- Theta (-0.0527): High time decay, ideal for short-term plays.
- Gamma (0.0754): High sensitivity to price movement, enhancing gains.
- Turnover (7,244): High liquidity ensures easy entry/exit.
- Why it stands out: This call option offers a balance of leverage and liquidity, with a 64.06% price change ratio indicating strong demand. A 5% upside to $19.23 would yield a payoff of $1.23 per contract, translating to a 71% return on the $1.75 premium.
• Top Option 2: METC20260116C20
- Strike: $20, Expiration: 2026-01-16, IV: 113.06%, Leverage: 13.34%, Delta: 0.42, Theta: -0.0501, Gamma: 0.0747, Turnover: 21,230
- IV (113.06%): Suggests high market expectations.
- Leverage (13.34%): Strong amplification potential.
- Delta (0.42): Moderate sensitivity to price changes.
- Theta (-0.0501): High time decay, suitable for short-term.
- Gamma (0.0747): High sensitivity to price movement.
- Turnover (21,230): Exceptional liquidity.
- Why it stands out: This option’s 73.33% price change ratio indicates robust buying pressure. A 5% upside to $19.23 would result in a $0.23 payoff, a 133% return on the $0.17 premium. The high leverage and liquidity make it ideal for aggressive bulls.
Hook: Aggressive bulls should consider METC20260116C18 into a breakout above $18.50, while METC20260116C20 offers a high-leverage play for a sustained rally.

Backtest Ramaco Resources A Stock Performance
The backtest of METC's performance after an intraday surge of 8% from 2022 to the present shows favorable short-to-medium-term gains, highlighting the ETF's potential for positive returns following such events. The 3-Day win rate is 47.43%, the 10-Day win rate is 48.05%, and the 30-Day win rate is 51.13%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns within the short and medium term. The maximum return during the backtest was 7.42% over 30 days, suggesting that METC can offer decent gains even after an initial 8% surge.

Ramaco’s Buyback and Technical Setup Signal a High-Probability Trade
Ramaco’s $100 million buyback plan and technical indicators suggest a high-probability trade for near-term gains. The stock’s 8.47% surge has positioned it at a critical juncture: a break above $18.50 could trigger a retest of the 52-week high, while a failure to hold above $16.60 may reignite bearish momentum. Investors should monitor the 200-day average at $19.06 and the Invesco Energy Momentum ETF (PXI) for sector-wide cues. With Peabody Energy (BTU) up 0.87%, the coal sector’s mixed performance underscores METC’s unique catalyst. Act now: Buy METC20260116C18 for a 71% projected return if the stock breaks $18.50, or METC20260116C20 for a 133% return on a sustained rally.