Radiant Capital/Tether Market Overview: RDNTUSDT

• Price declined by 0.00044 (–2.02%) over 24 hours, closing near recent support.
• Volume increased significantly, especially during the evening, but price failed to hold key levels.
• RSI indicates oversold conditions, suggesting potential for a near-term bounce.
• Volatility expanded during the early session but contracted later, pointing to fading momentum.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed mid-session, signaling bearish continuation bias.

Radiant Capital/Tether (RDNTUSDT) opened at 0.02139 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET, hit a high of 0.02178, a low of 0.02005, and closed at 0.02021 on 2025-10-04 at 12:00 ET. The pair recorded a total volume of 25,935,080 and a notional turnover of approximately $525,810 over the 24-hour window. The decline reflects a bearish continuation amid strong volume, with key support and resistance levels shaping the narrative.

Structure & Formations

Price action on the 15-minute chart revealed a bearish engulfing pattern at 0.02147–0.02141 around 2025-10-03 19:30–19:45 ET, which confirmed a downward shift in sentiment. A key support level emerged at 0.02056 (the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the prior swing high), with price testing this level twice and failing to close above it. A minor resistance at 0.02066 was briefly tested during the late morning session but failed to hold, reinforcing the bearish bias. The formation of a doji at 0.02046–0.02046 around 2025-10-04 03:45 ET indicated indecision and possible consolidation ahead.

Moving Averages

Short-term moving averages (20/50-period on 15-minute chart) remained below price, indicating continued bearish momentum. The 50-period MA crossed below the 20-period MA in the morning, confirming a bearish crossover. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA sits below the 200-period MA, reinforcing a bearish outlook for the longer term. The 100-period MA, while showing signs of flattening, continues to act as a dynamic overhead resistance level.

MACD & RSI

MACD remained in negative territory for much of the session, with the histogram showing a slight positive divergence during late-night consolidation. RSI dipped into oversold territory (below 30) by the early morning session and has yet to show meaningful recovery. This suggests the pair may be due for a near-term bounce, although a confirmation of sustained momentum is needed for a reversal scenario.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the early session, with price hitting the upper Bollinger Band at 0.02178 before a sharp pullback. By the late evening, volatility had contracted, and price closed near the lower band, signaling a potential oversold scenario. The narrowing of the bands suggests a possible breakout or breakdown scenario in the near term, with 0.02045 acting as a key level to watch.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the early evening (19:00–21:00 ET) and again during the late-night to early morning (02:00–05:00 ET) periods, confirming bearish pressure during those intervals. Notional turnover followed a similar trend, with the largest single 15-minute turnover spike occurring at 05:15–05:30 ET as price tested the 0.02096–0.02097 range. Divergence between price and turnover appeared during the morning session, as volume decreased while price continued to fall, hinting at waning conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the key swing high (0.02178) and low (0.02056) revealed critical levels: 0.02136 (61.8%), 0.02150 (50%), and 0.02167 (38.2%). Price has tested the 38.2% level twice without closing above it, and a potential rebound may find support at 0.02045 (the 23.6% retracement of the 0.02056–0.02178 move). A breakdown below 0.02045 would target the 0.02026 (23.6%) level of the prior bearish leg, adding to the bearish case.

Backtest Hypothesis

The described backtesting strategy involves a short-biased approach triggered by a bearish engulfing pattern on the 15-minute chart, confirmed by a close below a 50-period moving average and RSI in oversold territory. A stop-loss is placed above the nearest resistance (initially at 0.02066) and a target is set at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. This strategy aligns with today’s price action, particularly during the 19:30–19:45 ET session, where the bearish engulfing pattern was formed. A trade executed at that time would have aligned with the prevailing bearish trend and found support levels consistent with Fibonacci projections.