QURE's 15% Surge: A Regulatory Rebound or Legal Reckoning?

Summary
• uniQure (QURE) surges 14.98% intraday to $25.17, rebounding from a 50% drop post-FDA rejection of AMT-130
• Legal investigation by Kessler Topaz Meltzer & Check LLP triggers investor uncertainty
• Options chain shows heightened volatility with 114% implied volatility on January 16 call options

uniQure’s stock has staged a dramatic intraday rebound, surging 14.98% to $25.17 as of 2:56 PM EST. The move follows a regulatory setback in November when the FDA rejected AMT-130’s BLA submission, sparking a 50% selloff. With the stock trading near its 52-week low of $7.76, the recent rally raises questions about short-term speculative activity and the impact of ongoing legal scrutiny.

FDA Rejection and Legal Scrutiny Spark Volatility
uniQure’s 14.98% intraday surge follows a regulatory and legal storm. On November 3, 2025, the FDA notified the company that AMT-130, its gene therapy for Huntington’s disease, lacked sufficient data to support a Biologics License Application (BLA). This triggered a 50% selloff, from $67.69 to $34.29. Now, a lawsuit investigation by Kessler Topaz Meltzer & Check, LLP has reignited volatility. The firm alleges potential securities law violations, citing the FDA’s reversal of prior approval signals. The stock’s rebound reflects speculative bets on a short-term bounce amid heightened uncertainty.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on QURE’s Volatility
• 200-day average: 22.43 (below current price)
• RSI: 24.77 (oversold)
• MACD: -4.64 (bullish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: 24.498 (middle band), 17.489 (lower band)

QURE’s technicals suggest a short-term rebound from oversold levels. The 200-day average at 22.43 supports a bullish bias, while the RSI at 24.77 indicates potential for a bounce. The MACD histogram shows a narrowing bearish gap, hinting at momentum reversal. Key levels to watch: 24.498 (middle Bollinger Band) and 17.489 (lower band).

Top Options Picks
• QURE20260116C23 (Call, $23 strike, Jan 16 expiration):
- Implied Volatility: 114.17% (high)
- Delta: 0.658 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.065 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.044 (moderate sensitivity to price changes)
- Turnover: 10,491 (high liquidity)
- Leverage Ratio: 5.91% (moderate)
- Payoff (5% upside): $26.43 → $3.43 profit
- Why it stands out: High IV and liquidity make this call ideal for a short-term rebound trade. The 5.91% leverage amplifies gains if QURE breaks above 24.498.

• QURE20260116C25 (Call, $25 strike, Jan 16 expiration):
- Implied Volatility: 111.53% (high)
- Delta: 0.561 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0657 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0489 (moderate sensitivity to price changes)
- Turnover: 5,448 (high liquidity)
- Leverage Ratio: 7.83% (moderate)
- Payoff (5% upside): $26.43 → $1.43 profit
- Why it stands out: This call offers a balance of leverage and liquidity. The 7.83% leverage ratio provides a stronger return if QURE closes above 25.00, aligning with the 200-day average breakout.

Trading Outlook: Aggressive bulls should target QURE20260116C23 for a 5% upside play, while QURE20260116C25 offers a safer, moderate-risk position. Both contracts benefit from high IV and liquidity, but time decay (theta) requires swift execution. Watch for a break above 24.498 to validate the bullish case.

Backtest uniQure Stock Performance
The backtest of the Quantum ETF (QURE) after a 15% intraday surge from 2022 to the present reveals mixed results. While the 3-Day and 10-Day win rates are above 40%, the 30-Day win rate is slightly lower at 42.44%. The maximum return during the backtest was 13.78%, which occurred on day 59, indicating that while QURE has a decent chance of positive returns in the short term, the overall performance is modest, and there is some volatility.

Act Now: QURE’s Legal and Regulatory Crossroads
uniQure’s 14.98% intraday surge reflects a fragile balance between regulatory uncertainty and speculative optimism. The stock’s rebound from oversold RSI levels and bullish MACD divergence suggests a short-term bounce is possible, but the FDA’s reversal of AMT-130 approval signals and the ongoing lawsuit investigation cast a long shadow. Investors should prioritize QURE20260116C23 and QURE20260116C25 for high-liquidity, high-IV plays, but remain vigilant for a breakdown below 17.489 (lower Bollinger Band). Meanwhile, biotech sector leader Amgen (AMGN) rose 0.23%, underscoring the sector’s resilience. For QURE, the immediate focus is on the January 16 options expiration and the outcome of the Kessler Topaz investigation. Act now: Buy QURE20260116C23 if the stock closes above 24.498 by 3:00 PM EST.