Quickswap/Tether Market Overview – 2025-09-22

• Price declined sharply overnight, falling from 0.02315 to 0.0207, with bearish momentum visible after 03:00 ET.
• Oversold RSI and expanding Bollinger Bands suggest heightened volatility and potential near-term rebound.
• Volume spiked during the selloff, with over 9 million traded at the low, but price failed to find immediate support.
• A key support level formed near 0.0206–0.0207, with Fibonacci 61.8% alignment reinforcing potential bounce targets.
• Downtrend appears to be in a high-conviction phase, but a reversal pattern at 0.0209 may signal near-term exhaustion.

Quickswap/Tether (QUICKUSDT) opens at 0.02304 (12:00 ET-1) and closes at 0.0207 (12:00 ET) after a sharp 12-hour selloff. The pair hit a 24-hour high of 0.02315 and a low of 0.0206, with total volume reaching 9.5 million and turnover at $217,500.

Structure & Formations

Price broke below key psychological support at 0.0210 during the early hours, forming a bearish breakdown pattern. A strong bearish engulfing candle at 06:15 ET confirmed the shift in sentiment. After hitting a low of 0.0206, a small bullish engulfing candle appeared at 15:45 ET, indicating a potential short-term bounce. However, the price remains below both 20 and 50-period moving averages, with no clear reversal confirmed yet.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart have pulled below the price, reinforcing the bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA sits near 0.0229 and acts as resistance; the 100 and 200-period MAs remain higher, suggesting further downside could be possible before a potential retest of key support levels.

MACD & RSI

MACD has remained negative throughout the 24-hour period, with bearish divergence evident after the selloff in the 03:00–06:00 ET window. RSI hit oversold territory near 26 around 07:00 ET and has shown some tentative signs of recovery, currently sitting at 34. This may hint at a possible near-term bounce, although the broader trend remains bearish.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded significantly following the breakdown below key support. Price action has remained near the lower band since 05:00 ET, with the 15-minute bands stretching wider as the selloff accelerated. The wide bands suggest heightened fear in the market and could foreshadow a retest of the mid-band around 0.0212–0.0214 before any further bearish continuation.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the selloff, particularly between 05:00 and 07:00 ET, when over 9 million QUICK tokens changed hands at prices below 0.0210. This indicates strong distribution or panic selling. Turnover also spiked, reaching a peak of $7,000 during the 06:15–06:30 ET period. However, recent volume has declined, suggesting that the selloff may be exhausting.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the recent swing high at 0.02315 and low at 0.0206 show key levels at 0.0220 (38.2%) and 0.0215 (61.8%). The price is currently forming a base near the 61.8% retracement level, which may provide some near-term support. A break below 0.0206 could push the price toward the 0.0199 target (100% retracement).

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed backtest strategy leverages a combination of RSI divergence and Fibonacci retracement levels. Specifically, it triggers a long entry when RSI shows a bullish divergence near key Fibonacci support (61.8% in this case) and volume declines, indicating exhaustion. A stop-loss is placed below the most recent swing low, while a take-profit is set at the 38.2% retracement level. Given the current setup near 0.0206–0.0207, this strategy could be used to assess whether the short-term bounce is sustainable or merely a bear trap ahead of further declines.