QuarkChain/Tether (QKCUSDT) Market Overview

• QKCUSDT dipped sharply after a bullish start, closing 1.6% below the session high.
• RSI shows overbought conditions in the morning, followed by a bearish divergence.
• Bollinger Bands indicate a volatile 24-hour range, with price consolidating near the lower band.
• On-chain volume surged mid-morning before declining, suggesting waning bullish conviction.

Market Activity Summary

QuarkChain/Tether (QKCUSDT) opened at $0.006379 on 2025-10-06 12:00 ET, reached a high of $0.006447, touched a low of $0.006127, and closed at $0.006128 on 2025-10-07 12:00 ET. The 24-hour volume amounted to 47,917,856 QKC (approximately $300,997 at average price), reflecting moderate on-chain activity and bearish sentiment toward the pair.

Structure & Formations

Price opened with a modest bullish bias but quickly gave back gains, forming a bearish engulfing pattern around $0.00642–$0.00643. A key support was observed near $0.00630–$0.00631, where price found temporary stability after a sharp selloff. A potential resistance remains intact at $0.00644–$0.00645. A doji formed in the late afternoon (ET) near $0.00632, signaling indecision.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart suggest a bearish crossover, with the 20-SMA crossing below the 50-SMA during the morning session. Daily MAs (50, 100, 200) also indicate a bearish alignment, with price below all three, reinforcing a weak near-term outlook.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned negative after 17:00 ET on October 6, confirming bearish momentum, while the RSI moved into overbought territory briefly before declining sharply, indicating a potential trend reversal. A bearish divergence in RSI and price suggests waning bullish conviction.

Bollinger Bands widened sharply in the early morning hours before contracting mid-day, hinting at a period of low volatility. Price has spent most of the session near the lower band, suggesting oversold conditions but without a clear reversal signal.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged in the late morning (18:00–20:00 ET) as prices moved toward $0.00642, but declined sharply after the selloff began. Notional turnover spiked during this period but diverged from price as the downtrend took hold. This volume divergence suggests traders may have scaled out of long positions.

Fibonacci Retracements

The recent 15-minute swing from $0.006447 to $0.006305 saw price test the 61.8% level at $0.006376, where it rebounded briefly before continuing lower. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement level at $0.006287 acted as a key resistance-turned-support, with price breaking below it decisively.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy focuses on identifying bearish divergences in RSI and volume during a downtrend, paired with a key Fibonacci retracement level. In this case, the RSI showed a bearish divergence at the 61.8% retracement, followed by a sharp volume contraction and a break below the 38.2% level. A sell signal could be triggered when all three conditions align—RSI divergence, volume contraction, and price breaking a key Fibonacci level. Historical data suggests such a setup may yield a 60–70% success rate in capturing short-term bearish trends, especially in low-cap altcoins like QKC.