Quantum Stocks Explode After Trump ‘Equity Stake’ Rumor — But Is This the Bottom or Just a Bounce?

Quantum computing stocks snapped a three-day losing streak Thursday after Wall Street Journal reported that the Trump administration is considering taking equity stakes in select quantum technology companies — a move that would extend Washington’s growing pattern of strategic investments into critical industries. The report sent shares of Rigetti Computing (RGTI), IonQ (IONQ), D-Wave Quantum (QBTS), and Quantum Computing Inc. (QUBT) surging more than 10–20% intraday, with the rally providing a welcome reprieve after steady selling pressure had driven many of these stocks to key technical support levels. Traders now see the setup as a potential inflection point — but one that will require follow-through from the White House to sustain.

According to The Wall Street Journal, the Commerce Department has been in early discussions with several U.S.-based quantum computing companies about providing federal funding in exchange for government equity stakes or related financial rights, such as warrants or royalties. The paper cited people familiar with the matter who said that Deputy Commerce Secretary Paul Dabbar, a former energy official and quantum executive, is leading the talks. The prospective program would reportedly tap remaining funds from the Chips Act’s R&D budget and distribute at least $10 million in awards per company.

The names mentioned — including Rigetti, IonQ, and D-Wave — are all seen as early-stage leaders in quantum computing, a field capable of performing calculations exponentially faster than traditional computers. The potential government backing, if finalized, would mark the first direct federal investment in the sector, similar to recent deals that saw the administration take equity positions in Intel and a domestic rare-earth miner. The White House has repeatedly emphasized that industries such as quantum computing, semiconductors, and critical minerals represent national security priorities in the race to compete with China’s state-backed technology model.

As the Journal noted, the proposed structure would mirror prior interventions where taxpayer funding was converted into equity ownership. In August, the U.S. government converted $9 billion in semiconductor grants into an 8.9% stake in Intel, instantly becoming its largest shareholder. Energy and Commerce officials have since suggested that “the government should share in the upside” of its industrial policy bets — particularly as billions in Chips Act funds are reallocated toward emerging technologies.

While the initial report ignited strong buying across the quantum complex, the enthusiasm was tempered later in the session after conflicting headlines began to surface. CNBC’s Kristina Partsinevelos tweeted that Rigetti confirmed “ongoing talks with the U.S. government on quantum funding,” adding that “if the U.S. does not lead in supporting these breakthroughs, others will — posing significant risks to our economic competitiveness and national security.” But just minutes later, Reuters cited a Commerce Department official saying the agency is “not currently negotiating with any of the companies,” a statement that sent shares off their highs.

Yahoo Finance’s Jennifer Schonberger also added nuance via X (formerly Twitter), quoting a source familiar with the talks who said the administration “is not necessarily considering equity stakes at this time,” but rather exploring multiple options — including warrants or loan structures — to ensure “a good return for the taxpayer.” Schonberger further noted that any funding would likely use “leftover Chips Act money,” and that the list of potential recipients may extend beyond the companies mentioned in the Wall Street Journal report.

Despite the mixed messages, quantum stocks still closed sharply higher. Rigetti gained as much as 15%, IonQ 12%, and D-Wave nearly 20% at their peaks before paring gains. The bounce came after several sessions of steady profit-taking that had pushed many names down to important support zones on the charts — levels traders had been watching for signs of stabilization. Technically, the group now faces a make-or-break moment: follow-through buying on Friday could confirm a near-term bottom, while a reversal would risk resuming the downtrend into month-end.

From a broader perspective, the rumor fits neatly into the administration’s recent pattern of direct market intervention. President Trump and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick have both argued that the U.S. must secure ownership stakes in critical technologies to ensure taxpayer value and prevent foreign dependency. Quantum computing, long considered a “holy grail” of computational power, could represent the next strategic frontier. Analysts point out that China’s heavy investment in the sector — coupled with Google’s recent claim that its quantum computer runs 13,000 times faster than conventional systems — has added urgency to Washington’s response.

Still, analysts caution that government involvement alone won’t sustain momentum in these stocks without clear funding details. Several of the names, including Rigetti and D-Wave, remain pre-profit and heavily reliant on capital markets for survival. The recent rally had already pushed valuations to speculative extremes, and the selloff earlier this week reflected growing concern that investors were front-running news flow that hadn’t materialized.

In the near term, traders will look to President Trump’s scheduled remarks (He is speaking at the time of this writing) for any confirmation that quantum computing support is under active consideration. Even a passing reference to strategic funding or public-private partnerships could validate the Journal’s report and fuel another leg higher. On the other hand, silence or denial could trigger renewed profit-taking as short-term players lock in gains from Thursday’s surge.

For now, the setup remains compelling but unconfirmed. Quantum stocks have staged a technically clean rebound from oversold territory, aided by a headline that reawakened speculative interest in the space. Whether this bounce morphs into a sustained rally will hinge on follow-through — both from investors and from Washington. Until then, traders appear content to treat the news as a tradable rumor, but not yet a policy reality.