Quantum Research Suggests 20-Fold Decrease In Resources Needed To Break RSA Encryption

Google Quantum AI researcher Craig Gidney has published a new research paper indicating that breaking widely used RSA encryption may require significantly fewer quantum resources than previously estimated. The study suggests that the number of quantum resources needed could be 20 times less than what was initially believed.

While the research did not specifically address Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies, it targets the encryption methods that are crucial for securing crypto wallets and transactions. RSA, a public-key encryption algorithm, is used to encrypt and decrypt data through the use of a public key for encryption and a private key for decryption.

Bitcoin, however, relies on elliptic curve cryptography (ECC) rather than RSA. ECC is a method of securing digital data using mathematical calculations called curves, which operate in one direction. This makes ECC keys more secure than RSA keys of the same bit length. Despite this, ECC can also be compromised by Shor’s algorithm, a quantum algorithm designed to factor large numbers or solve logarithm problems, which are fundamental to public key cryptography.

Gidney’s research estimates that a 2048-bit RSA integer could be factored in under a week by a quantum computer with fewer than one million noisy qubits. This is a significant revision from his 2019 paper, which estimated that such a task would require 20 million qubits and take eight hours. It is important to note that no such quantum computer currently exists. IBM’s most powerful quantum processor, Condor, has just over 1,100 qubits, and Google’s Sycamore has 53.

Quantum computing operates on the principles of quantum mechanics, using quantum bits or qubits instead of traditional bits. Unlike bits, which represent either a 0 or a 1, qubits can represent both 0 and 1 simultaneously due to quantum phenomena like superposition and entanglement. This capability allows quantum computers to perform multiple calculations at once, potentially solving problems that are currently intractable for classical computers.

Gidney’s findings represent a 20-fold decrease in the estimated number of qubits required for such tasks. Researchers, including the quantum research group Project 11, are actively exploring whether even weakened versions of Bitcoin’s encryption can be broken by today’s quantum hardware. The group recently launched a public bounty offering 1 BTC to anyone able to break tiny ECC key sizes—between 1 and 25 bits—using a quantum computer. The goal is not to break Bitcoin today but to measure how close current systems can get to achieving this feat.