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Quantum Leap or Quantum Hype? Why D-Wave’s Surge Outshines Rigetti’s Struggles

Wesley ParkTuesday, May 20, 2025 8:13 pm ET

37min read

The quantum computing race is heating up, and two stocks are leading the charge: D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) and Rigetti Computing (RGTI). While both are pioneers in a $170 billion market that could revolutionize industries from healthcare to logistics, their recent performances tell dramatically different stories. Let’s dissect why D-Wave’s surge isn’t just a flash in the pan—and why investors should act now before the next wave hits.

The D-Wave Quantum Surge: A Case of Execution Over Hype

D-Wave’s stock skyrocketed 27.6% in early May 冤死 (QBTS) after reporting Q1 2025 revenue of $15 million, a staggering 509% jump from the prior year. This isn’t just about numbers—it’s about real-world proof. The company’s Advantage2 quantum system cracked a magnetic material simulation problem that would take a supercomputer decades to solve, marking a quantum supremacy milestone. Analysts at Benchmark and B. Riley are now shouting “Buy” with price targets hitting $14, citing D-Wave’s cash reserves of $304 million and narrowing net loss of $5.4 million.

But why the sudden love? Investors are betting on D-Wave’s practical edge. Unlike competitors focused on lab experiments, D-Wave is already selling systems to clients like Ford and Japan Tobacco for drug discovery, logistics optimization, and AI integration. Its hybrid quantum solvers and error mitigation tech are turning hype into revenue—a stark contrast to peers still chasing “what ifs.”

Rigetti’s Struggles: Promising Tech, Painful Reality

Rigetti, on the other hand, is still chasing the finish line. Its Q1 revenue plummeted 52% to $1.5 million, even as it secured government contracts and a $35 million Quanta Computer investment. While its Ankaa-3 quantum chip and optical qubit control are technically brilliant, the market isn’t rewarding research over results.

The stock’s 14.6% post-earnings drop in May highlights investor impatience. Sure, Rigetti’s $237 million in cash and partnerships with NASA and MIT are positives, but its price-to-sales ratio of 197 feels unsustainable when revenue is shrinking. Even the $17 million in government grants can’t mask the fact that it’s burning $22 million a quarter.

Options Markets Speak Louder Than Words

The futures markets are sending a clear signal. D-Wave’s options activity in Q2 2025 saw 80,309 call options traded, four times the norm, with implied volatility spiking to 137%. Investors are betting big on its path to profitability. Meanwhile, Rigetti’s options volume, while up, is dwarfed by D-Wave’s momentum.

Rigetti’s 64% drop in bookings and its reliance on non-cash gains (like a $62 million derivative liability bump) make its valuation look like a balloon waiting to pop. D-Wave, by contrast, is the cash-rich, revenue-driven play in a sector where execution matters most.

Why Now Is the Time to Bet on D-Wave

The Quantum Supremacy Tipping Point: D-Wave isn’t just theorizing—it’s delivering. Its Advantage2 system’s 40% energy boost and 75% noise reduction mean clients are actually paying for solutions, not promises.
Wall Street’s Wake-Up Call: Analysts are finally rewarding real results. While Rigetti’s “Strong Buy” rating is based on 3–5-year hopes, D-Wave’s upgrades reflect tangible progress today.
Cash Is King: With $304 million on hand, D-Wave can scale without diluting shareholders—a luxury Rigetti’s $217 million war chest doesn’t afford.

The Risks? Yes, but the Reward Outweighs Them

Skeptics will cite D-Wave’s $167 price-to-sales ratio and the industry’s nascent state. But remember: this is the moonshot era. NVIDIA’s Jensen Huang says quantum computing could take 15–30 years to mature, but early leaders like D-Wave will dominate the race. Rigetti’s technical brilliance isn’t enough if it can’t turn labs into ledgers.

Final Verdict: QBTS Now, RGTI Later

Buy D-Wave now at $13.14—its Q1 results and August earnings could supercharge this stock. Rigetti? Wait until it proves it can monetize its tech, or risk being left in the dust. The quantum future is here—and D-Wave is writing the code.

This is a race where execution beats theory, and D-Wave is running away with the gold. Don’t miss the train—it’s quantum-powered and accelerating.

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