Quantum Computing Threatens 25% of Bitcoin, Urgent Migration to Post-Quantum Cryptography Needed by 2025

Quantum computing poses an imminent threat to the cryptographic systems that underpin digital currencies, according to David Carvalho, CEO of Naoris Protocol. The looming danger of quantum computing, often referred to as Q-Day, could render current encryption methods obsolete, exposing crypto wallets, blockchains, and digital banking assets to potential breaches. While traditional supercomputers would require billions of years to crack modern encryption, a quantum computer could achieve this feat in a matter of hours. This vulnerability extends beyond cryptocurrencies to include secure transactions, private communications, and protected systems, all of which could become accessible to malicious actors.

Jay Gambetta, Vice President of IBM Quantum, emphasizes the urgency of the situation, stating that the quantum threat is already present. Nation-states and criminal organizations are currently harvesting encrypted data, betting on future quantum capabilities to decrypt it. This "Harvest Now, Decrypt Later" strategy means that even if Q-Day is years away, the damage is already being done. Computer scientist Deborah Frincke from Sandia National Laboratories warns that encryption underpins the security of sensitive infrastructure, including financial systems and energy grids, making them vulnerable to quantum attacks.

In May 2025, BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, highlighted quantum computing as a critical risk in their Bitcoin ETF filing. They cautioned that advancements in quantum computing could undermine the viability of cryptographic algorithms used in Bitcoin and other digital currencies. Researchers predict that 4 million bitcoin, roughly 25% of all usable BTC, could be stolen once quantum computers advance enough to break their encryption. Ethereum and most blockchains rely on Elliptic Curve Cryptography, which quantum computing could also shatter. Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has proposed emergency hard-fork solutions to address this threat, but the process of migrating to a new quantum-resistant blockchain could take years and cause significant disruption.

The potential impact of quantum computing extends far beyond cryptocurrencies. It threatens the collapse of digital trust across various systems, including banking, power grids, military communications, healthcare records, and government secrets. A quantum miner could leverage its computational power to control the blockchain, transforming mining from a decentralized industry into an oligopoly controlled by quantum-capable entities. Some experts believe that Q-Day could arrive as early as 2025, with Google Quantum AI already reducing the resources needed for crypto-breaking quantum attacks. The only way forward is to build quantum resistance into the foundation of digital systems, using post-quantum cryptography that can withstand both classical and quantum attacks. This includes upgrading to quantum-resistant digital signatures and overhauling blockchain infrastructure. The migration to post-quantum cryptography must begin immediately to avoid a potential catastrophe.

Q-Day is not a future problem but a present crisis. While the focus is on AI advancements, the quantum threat is already unfolding. The harvest of encrypted data is happening now, and the decryption is imminent. 2025 is likely the last chance to start migrating to post-quantum cryptography before cryptographically relevant quantum computers render current systems obsolete. The quantum clock is ticking, and every second of inaction brings us closer to total cryptographic annihilation. For crypto holders, the choice is clear: secure digital assets with post-quantum cryptography or risk them becoming future-worthless.