Quantum Computing Poses Manageable Long-Term Risk to Bitcoin, CoinShares and Industry Experts Say

Quantum computing is not an immediate threat to Bitcoin, according to CoinShares, which has categorized the risk as manageable and distant. The firm emphasized that current technology does not have the capability to break Bitcoin’s cryptographic foundations. This assessment aligns with broader industry views that quantum threats, while theoretically possible, are not pressing for now.

MicroStrategy has taken a proactive approach by announcing a Bitcoin Security Program during its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings call. The program aims to evaluate and prepare for potential long-term risks from quantum computing. Executive Chairman Michael Saylor highlighted the importance of early research and collaboration to avoid last-minute, disruptive protocol changes.

Industry experts and researchers remain divided on the urgency of the issue. Some, such as Jonas Nick and Ethan Heilman, have actively explored post-quantum cryptography solutions. Others, including major Bitcoin developers like Pieter Wuille and Adam Back, view quantum computing as a distant concern. Wuille acknowledged the theoretical threat but stressed the importance of addressing market fears before any technical breakthroughs.

Quantum computing poses a potential risk to Bitcoin’s cryptographic systems, particularly the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA) used in transactions. If a quantum computer could derive private keys from public keys, it could compromise certain address types. However, most modern addresses do not reveal public keys until a transaction is initiated, limiting immediate exposure.

Current quantum computers lack the power to pose a real threat. Experts estimate that large-scale quantum computers capable of breaking Bitcoin’s encryption would require millions of stable qubits, which is far beyond current capabilities. This timeline gives developers and users time to adapt, including possible upgrades to quantum-resistant cryptographic methods.

Market volatility has also influenced discussions around quantum risk. Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, reported a $12.4 billion net loss in Q4 2025 due to Bitcoin price declines. Under new accounting rules, unrealized losses must be reflected in earnings statements, regardless of whether the assets are sold. The company reiterated its long-term Bitcoin strategy despite short-term losses.

Post-quantum cryptography adoption is gaining traction. The U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has standardized several post-quantum algorithms, including ML-KEM, ML-DSA, and SLH-DSA. These standards are being integrated into government and enterprise systems, driving early-stage procurement and deployment.

Bitcoin developers are divided on the need for immediate action. Some believe that upgrades can wait until quantum threats become more tangible. Others advocate for early preparation to ensure the network can evolve without major disruptions. The governance structure of Bitcoin makes significant protocol changes difficult, requiring broad consensus among key developers.

India has also emerged as a potential leader in quantum computing, with initiatives like the Quantum Valley project in Andhra Pradesh aiming to position the country as a hardware and manufacturing hub. Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu highlighted the government’s focus on enabling quantum innovation and attracting investment.

Despite growing interest in quantum computing, the immediate risks to Bitcoin remain theoretical. The market has not yet seen significant price movements tied directly to quantum concerns. Most investors continue to focus on traditional factors such as regulatory developments, adoption rates, and macroeconomic trends.