Quant/Bitcoin Market Overview (2025-10-11)

• QNTBTC traded in a broad range, with a sharp sell-off from 0.000838 to 0.000755, followed by a modest recovery.
• Volatility spiked during the sell-off, but has since contracted, suggesting a temporary resolution of immediate pressure.
• RSI and MACD indicate overbought conditions at the high, but oversold near the close, hinting at possible short-term reversal setups.
• Bollinger Bands show a recent contraction, possibly setting up for a break.

The QNTBTC pair opened at 0.000819 on 2025-10-10 12:00 ET and closed at 0.0007844 on 2025-10-11 12:00 ET, hitting a high of 0.0008463 and a low of 0.0005922. Total volume was 2,702.52, with notional turnover calculated as volume × average price ≈ $2,142. The 24-hour candle is bearish and heavily volume-weighted on the downside, particularly after 2025-10-10 21:30.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart shows a sharp bearish reversal pattern from mid-evening, where price spiked to 0.0008463 and quickly collapsed to 0.0005922. The lowest point, a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of that swing, held for a time, but failed to hold as the next leg down accelerated. A long bearish candle on 2025-10-10 21:30 (QNTBTC low 0.0005922) is a potential inside bar formation, confirming a short-term bearish bias. A bullish engulfing pattern was formed at the close of the 24-hour period, which may indicate short-term exhaustion of the downtrend.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-EMA crossed below the 50-EMA during the sharp sell-off, reinforcing bearish momentum. The 50-EMA is now above price, and the 20-EMA is tracking closely, suggesting potential for a retest of the 50-EMA level as a short-term support. On the daily timeframe, the 50- and 100-day EMAs are in close proximity near 0.000785, indicating a possible key support zone for the next 24 hours. The 200-day EMA is slightly below, offering potential for a multi-day bullish bounce if buyers step in.

MACD & RSI

The MACD on the 15-minute chart showed a bearish crossover and negative divergence during the sell-off phase, with the histogram shrinking slightly in the final hours as the trend weakened. The RSI reached oversold territory near 0.000755, suggesting a possible bounce in the short term. While not an immediate reversal, the RSI’s recovery toward 35-40 suggests the oversold condition is easing, and momentum may shift back to neutral soon.

Bollinger Bands

Price spent the latter half of the 24-hour period in the lower half of the Bollinger Bands, with volatility significantly compressed post-21:30. This contraction suggests an increased likelihood of a breakout or reversal in the near term. If the 0.0007844 close holds above the lower band, the bands may widen again as short-covering and buyers re-enter.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the sharp sell-off, particularly during the QNTBTC candle ending on 2025-10-10 21:30 with a volume of 671.373, which contributed to the largest price drop of the day. The final hours showed a modest increase in volume during the recovery leg, indicating some short-covering and accumulation. Notional turnover was concentrated during the sell-off phase, with the final 6 hours showing a more balanced distribution of buying and selling pressure.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying the Fibonacci tool to the major 0.0008463 to 0.0005922 move, the 38.2% level (≈ 0.000717) was briefly tested and failed. The 50% level is at 0.0007195 and is currently untested but likely to be a key level in the next 24 hours if the pair retraces. The 61.8% level is at 0.000722 and may act as a potential support. On the intra-day swing (high 0.0008463 to low 0.000755), the 50% retracement is at 0.0008008—close to the current price—suggesting a potential consolidation level.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy for QNTBTC could leverage the observed Fibonacci 50% retracement as a dynamic support/resistance target. Using a 15-minute chart, a buy signal could be triggered when price closes above the 50% retracement of the most recent significant bearish swing, with a stop-loss placed below the 61.8% level. A sell signal could be triggered on a close below the 38.2% level, especially in the context of RSI divergence or bearish MACD crossovers. This approach aligns with the recent price action, where price has bounced near the 50% retracement and is currently consolidating around it, suggesting a setup for the strategy to be tested in the next 24 hours.