Qualcomm Surges 4% on AI Expansion and Shareholder Returns: Can the Momentum Sustain?

Summary
• Qualcomm (QCOM) surges 4% to $183.04, hitting a 52-week high of $205.95
• Institutional investors boost holdings amid AI chip diversification and $3.4B shareholder returns
• Overbought indicators and resistance at $185 signal potential consolidation

Qualcomm’s intraday rally reflects a confluence of AI-driven product launches, aggressive shareholder returns, and renewed institutional confidence. The stock’s 4% jump to $183.04—a 7.20-point gain—positions it near key resistance levels as technical indicators signal stretched momentum. With the semiconductor sector surging on AI demand, QCOM’s strategic moves in AI chips and automotive partnerships are reshaping its valuation narrative.

AI Chip Expansion and Shareholder Returns Drive QCOM's Rally
Qualcomm’s 4% intraday surge is fueled by its aggressive AI chip diversification and $3.4 billion in shareholder returns via dividends and buybacks. The company’s new AI chips targeting smartphones, PCs, and automotive sectors have intensified market optimism, while institutional inflows underscore confidence in its long-term AI and automotive initiatives. Analysts highlight QCOM’s favorable valuation compared to peers like AST SpaceMobile, with a forward P/S ratio of 4.13 versus ASTS’ 107.22. Additionally, DBS analyst Fang Boon Foo’s $200 price target and Bernstein’s $215 target reinforce bullish sentiment.

Semiconductor Sector Gains Momentum Amid AI Demand
The semiconductor sector is riding a wave of AI-driven demand, with global sales projected to hit $1 trillion by 2026. Qualcomm’s 4% gain outperforms sector leader Intel (INTC), which rose 1.00% intraday. SIA data shows October 2025 global semiconductor sales grew 4.7% month-to-month, reflecting robust demand for AI infrastructure. QCOM’s AI chip expansion aligns with the sector’s trajectory, while its diversified revenue streams and 5G traction position it stronger than niche players like AST SpaceMobile.

Options and ETFs for QCOM's Bullish Momentum
• MACD: 1.12 (Buy signal), RSI: 68.84 (Bullish), Bollinger Bands: Upper $180.37, Middle $169.79
• 200-day MA: $157.66 (Below current price), Kijun support: $171.15

QCOM’s technicals suggest a bullish structure with momentum indicators favoring upside. The stock is expected to consolidate between $176 and $182.50 over five days, with a 80% probability of a price increase. For options, QCOM20251219C185 (Call, $185 strike, 30.90% IV, 63.42% leverage) and QCOM20251219C182.5 (Call, $182.5 strike, 30.11% IV, 44.70% leverage) stand out. Both contracts offer high liquidity (turnover $587,937 and $116,762) and strong gamma (0.0434 and 0.0433), indicating sensitivity to price moves. A 5% upside scenario (target $192.19) would yield a 272% payoff for QCOM20251219C185 and 228% for QCOM20251219C182.5. Aggressive bulls may consider QCMU (Direxion Daily QCOM Bull 2X ETF) for leveraged exposure, given its 7.64% intraday gain.

Backtest Qualcomm Stock Performance
The backtest of Qualcomm's (QCOM) performance after an intraday surge of at least 4% from 2022 to the present shows mixed results. While the 3-day and 10-day win rates are above 50%, the 30-day win rate is slightly lower at 52.98%. The maximum return during the backtest period was 1.29%, which occurred on day 56, indicating that while QCOM had a positive reaction to the intraday surge, the overall performance over longer periods was modest.

QCOM's AI-Driven Rally: A Strategic Buy for 2026
Qualcomm’s 4% rally underscores its leadership in AI and 5G, with technicals and fundamentals aligning for a bullish 2026 outlook. While overbought indicators caution against immediate breakouts, the stock’s consolidation near $182.50 offers a high-probability entry for long-term investors. Sector leader Intel’s 1.00% gain highlights QCOM’s superior momentum. Watch for a breakout above $185 or a pullback to $171.15 support. For options traders, QCOM20251219C185 and QCOM20251219C182.5 provide leveraged upside potential. Position now ahead of the December 19 expiration to capitalize on AI-driven demand.