Qualcomm Surges 3.14% on AI Breakthrough Hype: Is This the Start of a New Bull Run?

Summary
• Qualcomm (QCOM) rockets 3.14% to $181.52, breaking intraday highs of $182.00
• DBS analyst upgrades QCOM to Buy with $200 price target, citing AI-driven growth
• Zacks Consensus forecasts 1% EPS growth for 2026, outpacing AST SpaceMobile’s -60.6% decline

Qualcomm’s stock is surging on a perfect storm of AI optimism and sector momentum. With a 3.14% intraday gain, the chipmaker is testing key resistance levels amid bullish analyst upgrades and robust technical indicators. The semiconductor sector is in focus as global AI demand accelerates, with QCOM outperforming peers like Intel (INTC) and AST SpaceMobile (ASTS).

AI Ambitions and Analyst Optimism Drive QCOM Rally
Qualcomm’s rally is fueled by a confluence of strategic AI advancements and analyst enthusiasm. The company’s recent partnership with Saudi startup Humain to deploy AI data-center processors has reignited investor confidence in its AI roadmap. DBS analyst Fang Boon Foo’s $200 price target—backed by a 13.19% upside from current levels—cements QCOM as a top-tier semiconductor play. Meanwhile, Zacks data highlights QCOM’s superior valuation (P/S ratio of 4.13 vs. ASTS’ 107.22) and improving 2026 EPS estimates, contrasting with ASTS’ projected earnings collapse. The stock’s breakout above the 177.00 Fibonacci resistance level, coupled with a 68.84 RSI reading, signals strong near-term momentum.

Semiconductor Sector Gains Momentum as QCOM Outperforms Intel
The semiconductor sector is surging on AI infrastructure demand, with Qualcomm outpacing peers like Intel (INTC), which fell -0.3457% intraday. QCOM’s 3.14% gain contrasts with INTC’s struggles in the AI PC market, underscoring QCOM’s stronger positioning in 5G and AI. SIA data shows global semiconductor sales rising 4.7% month-to-month in October, driven by AI chip demand. QCOM’s 1.49 beta coefficient and 35.85 P/E ratio reflect its premium status in a sector primed for growth.

Leverage QCMU ETF and QCOM Call Options for High-Theta Gains
• MACD: 1.1244 (above signal line 0.0524), RSI: 68.84 (overbought), Bollinger Bands: 180.37 (upper), 169.79 (middle), 159.21 (lower)
• 200D MA: 157.66 (below current price), 30D MA: 172.09 (below), 100D MA: 164.38 (below)

QCOM’s technicals confirm a bullish breakout. The stock is trading above its 200D MA and within a 10.3% range from the 52W low. The Direxion Daily QCOM Bull 2X ETF (QCMU) offers 2X leverage, with a 5.37% intraday gain. For options, QCOM20251219C180 and QCOM20251219C185 stand out:

• QCOM20251219C180 (Call, $180 strike, 12/19 expiry):
- IV: 30.97% (moderate), Leverage Ratio: 39.07% (high), Delta: 0.5857 (moderate), Theta: -0.3926 (high decay), Gamma: 0.0418 (high sensitivity), Turnover: $232,813 (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% upside ($190.59): $10.59/share. Ideal for capitalizing on short-term volatility.

• QCOM20251219C185 (Call, $185 strike, 12/19 expiry):
- IV: 28.73% (moderate), Leverage Ratio: 86.51% (very high), Delta: 0.3646 (moderate), Theta: -0.2971 (high decay), Gamma: 0.0435 (high sensitivity), Turnover: $531,102 (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% upside: $5.59/share. High-leverage play for aggressive bulls.

Action: Buy QCOM20251219C180 for a balanced theta-gamma profile. If $185 breaks, QCOM20251219C185 offers explosive upside.

Backtest Qualcomm Stock Performance
The backtest of Qualcomm's (QCOM) performance after an intraday surge of at least 3% from 2022 to the present shows mixed results. While the 3-day win rate is high at 51.47%, the overall return over the period is negative at -0.11%, with a maximum return of only 1.44% during the backtest period. This suggests that while QCOM may experience short-term gains following a 3% surge, the overall trend has been lackluster.

Bullish Setup Confirmed: QCOM Eyes $185 Resistance
Qualcomm’s breakout above key resistance levels and robust technicals suggest a continuation of the rally. The stock’s 3.14% gain aligns with a broader semiconductor sector surge, driven by AI infrastructure demand. Investors should monitor the $185 level as a critical inflection point—breaking this could trigger a 10%+ move toward DBS’ $200 target. For now, QCMU and the selected call options offer leveraged exposure to this momentum. Watch Intel (INTC) for sector-wide cues, but QCOM’s AI-driven narrative remains the standout story.