Qualcomm Plunges 4.79% as Technical Analysis Flags Bearish Signals Amid 6.93% Two-Day Drop

Qualcomm (QCOM) has experienced a sharp correction, with a 4.79% decline in the most recent session and a cumulative 6.93% drop over two trading days. This downward momentum, combined with recent volatility, warrants a comprehensive technical analysis to assess potential support/resistance levels, trend sustainability, and reversal signals. Below is a structured evaluation of key technical indicators.

Candlestick Theory

Recent price action reveals bearish exhaustion, characterized by long lower shadows and bearish engulfing patterns. Key support levels are forming around the $168–$170 range, coinciding with prior consolidation zones in late 2025. Resistance is evident near $177–$179, where the stock previously stalled during its October 2025 rally. The two-day breakdown below $170.27 (a prior intraday low) suggests short-term bearish bias, with a potential test of the $165 psychological level.

Moving Average Theory

The 50-day moving average (currently ~$173.50) has been breached, confirming a shift to a bearish bias in the intermediate term. The 200-day MA (~$162.00) now acts as a critical dynamic support. Price proximity to the 100-day MA (~$170.50) may trigger a bounce or further decline depending on volume. The MA crossover (50-day below 200-day) reinforces a downtrend, though a rebound above $175 could re-establish bullish momentum.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD histogram has turned negative, with the line crossing below the signal line, signaling accelerating bearish momentum. The KDJ indicator (stochastic oscillator) shows oversold conditions, with %K and %D converging near 25–30 levels. However, divergence between the KDJ’s oversold reading and the MACD’s bearish divergence (lower highs in both price and momentum) suggests a higher probability of continuation rather than reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded, with the 20-period Bollinger Bands widening as the stock tests the lower band at ~$168. This contraction-expansion pattern implies a potential short-term rebound. However, the price remains within the bands, indicating contained volatility. A break below the lower band could target $164–$165, while a retest of the upper band (~$180) would require a sustained reversal above $177.

Volume-Price Relationship

Trading volume has surged during recent declines, with the most recent session’s volume (13.6 million shares) exceeding the 30-day average by ~20%. This validates the bearish move as a high-conviction trade. However, volume has not shown a significant spike on the second down day, suggesting potential exhaustion. A follow-through increase in volume on further declines would strengthen the bearish case.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The 14-period RSI has dipped to ~28, entering oversold territory. While this may attract short-covering buyers, the RSI’s failure to form a bullish divergence (price lows without corresponding RSI lows) suggests the downtrend could persist. A rebound above 40 would indicate a potential pause, but a sustained move above 50 is required to signal a shift in momentum.

Fibonacci Retracement

Applying Fibonacci levels to the October 2025 rally ($143–$187) reveals key support at $168.50 (61.8% retracement) and $162.50 (78.6% retracement). The current price is testing the 61.8% level, which may hold if volume wanes. A breakdown would target the 78.6% level, with a potential stop-loss near $171.50. Resistance is clustered at $178 (38.2% retracement) and $183 (23.6% retracement).