Qualcomm Plummets 1.9% Amid CEO Share Sales and Patent Lawsuit Amidst AI Ambitions

Summary
• Qualcomm (QCOM) tumbles 1.9% to $163.52, breaking below its 50-day moving average of $168.95
• CEO Cristiano Amon sells $24.8M in shares, reducing holdings by 50%
• New patent lawsuit emerges as regulatory scrutiny intensifies
• Analysts raise $210 price target despite stock trading 13% below 52-week high

Qualcomm’s sharp intraday decline reflects a confluence of bearish catalysts: executive share sales, legal challenges, and mixed market sentiment toward its AI expansion. With the stock trading near its 52-week low of $120.80, investors are recalibrating expectations as the chipmaker navigates a pivotal phase in its AI-driven transformation.

Executive Sales and Legal Headwinds Spark Short-Term Selloff
Qualcomm’s 1.9% drop stems from a combination of CEO share sales, a new patent lawsuit, and investor skepticism toward its AI ambitions. CEO Cristiano Amon’s $24.8M share sale—reducing his stake by 50%—sent a bearish signal, while the patent lawsuit adds regulatory uncertainty. Despite Q4 earnings beating estimates and a $22B IoT/automotive revenue target by 2029, the market discounted these positives against near-term risks. The stock’s 16% above-average volume (3.7M shares) and 34.77 RSI (oversold territory) suggest a short-term correction, though long-term fundamentals remain intact.

Semiconductor Sector Volatility as NVDA Also Slides
The semiconductor sector mirrored Qualcomm’s decline, with sector leader Nvidia (NVDA) falling 1.99% on the same day. This synchronized movement highlights sector-wide concerns over AI adoption timelines and regulatory scrutiny. While Qualcomm’s 31.6x P/E is significantly lower than NVDA’s 42.9x, the market’s risk-off sentiment impacted both names. However, Qualcomm’s 2.1% dividend yield and $22B IoT growth pipeline position it as a potential value play compared to its more speculative peers.

Bearish Options Play and Technical Reversal Setup
• 200-day average: $157.83 (below current price)
• RSI: 34.77 (oversold)
• MACD: -1.10 (bearish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $163.52 (near lower band of $164.14)

Qualcomm’s technicals suggest a short-term bearish bias, with key support at $162.50 (200D MA) and resistance at $167.50 (30D MA). The 34.77 RSI and -1.10 MACD histogram indicate oversold conditions, but a break below $161.39 (intraday low) could trigger further selling. For aggressive traders, the QCOM20251128P165 put option (strike $165, IV 38.27%, leverage 33.15%) offers high gamma (0.0365) and theta (-0.0200), ideal for a 5% downside scenario. A 5% drop to $155.34 would yield a $9.66 payoff (max profit: $165 - $155.34 = $9.66).

Top Options Picks:
• QCOM20251128P165 (Put):
- Code: QCOM20251128P165
- Strike: $165
- Expiry: 2025-11-28
- IV: 38.27% (moderate)
- Leverage: 33.15% (high)
- Delta: -0.5277 (moderate)
- Theta: -0.0200 (high decay)
- Gamma: 0.0365 (high sensitivity)
- Turnover: 127,037 (liquid)
- Why: High gamma and leverage amplify gains in a 5% downside scenario. IV is in a favorable range for bearish plays.
• QCOM20251128P162.5 (Put):
- Code: QCOM20251128P162.5
- Strike: $162.50
- Expiry: 2025-11-28
- IV: 34.52% (moderate)
- Leverage: 50.39% (high)
- Delta: -0.4322 (moderate)
- Theta: -0.0336 (high decay)
- Gamma: 0.0400 (high sensitivity)
- Turnover: 44,321 (liquid)
- Why: Higher leverage and gamma than the $165 put, with a 5% downside payoff of $12.18 (max profit: $162.50 - $155.34 = $12.18).

Action: Aggressive bears should prioritize QCOM20251128P165 for a 5% downside target. If $162.50 holds, pivot to QCOM20251128P162.5 for higher leverage.

Backtest Qualcomm Stock Performance
Below is a concise interpretation of the event-study you requested, followed by an interactive module where you can further explore every metric and drill down into specific trade lists and curves.Key findings (2022-01-01 → 2025-11-18):• Events detected: 129 sessions in which QCOM’s intraday return (Close-to-Open) fell ≤ -2 %. • Short-term drift: Average next-day return ≈ -0.19 %; 5-day ≈ -0.30 %; 10-day ≈ -0.06 %. • Hit ratio: Best reading 61 % (2-day window) but none of the horizons reached statistical significance. • Medium-term (30 d) cumulative impact: -0.35 % vs S&P 500 proxy +0.48 % → strategy underperforms passive exposure. • Practical takeaway: a simple “buy-after-plunge” rule offers no clear edge; layering additional filters (e.g., volume spike, volatility, macro regime) may be required.Parameter notes: 1. Analysis window was auto-set to ±30 trading days, the platform default for event studies when the user does not specify a horizon. 2. Close price was chosen for P&L computation to align with most post-event studies. 3. Data range extended to today (2025-11-18) to capture the freshest events.Please review the interactive report below.Feel free to explore the charts, cumulative P&L curves, and underlying trade logs in the module. Let me know if you’d like to test alternative thresholds, add risk filters, or run the study on other tickers.

Short-Term Bear Play Amid Long-Term AI Upside
Qualcomm’s 1.9% drop reflects near-term risks but masks its long-term AI potential. With a 34.77 RSI and $162.50 support level, the stock is oversold but vulnerable to further declines if the $161.39 intraday low breaks. Investors should monitor the $165 put options for a 5% downside scenario while keeping an eye on the sector leader, Nvidia (NVDA), which fell 1.99% today. A rebound above $167.50 could signal a reversal, but until then, bearish options like QCOM20251128P165 offer high leverage for a 5% downside. Watch for $162.50 support or regulatory updates.