Qualcomm Outlook - Weak Technicals and Mixed Analyst Sentiment in a Volatile Market

1. Market Snapshot

Takeaway: Qualcomm (QCOM) is showing signs of weakness on the technical front, but its fundamentals remain mixed. The stock is up 1.54% recently, but analyst sentiment is split and bearish signals dominate the chart.

2. News Highlights

Recent news highlights the evolving landscape for the semiconductor sector. McKinsey's report on US tariff policy and its impact on chip supply chains indicates growing uncertainty, while Japan's proposed cooperation with the US in rare earths and semiconductors could reshape trade dynamics. Additionally, the US Semiconductors ETF (SOXX) saw a $750 million outflow in May 2025, signaling shifting capital in the sector.

3. Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analysts remain divided. The simple average rating is 4.00, while the performance-weighted rating is a lower 1.88, reflecting poor historical returns for some firms. The stock is rated as "Underperform" by UBS and JP Morgan, and as "Strong Buy" by Rosenblatt. This lack of consensus suggests conflicting views on Qualcomm’s short-term prospects.

Currently, Qualcomm's price is rising, but the weighted expectations suggest a more bearish outlook. This divergence raises questions about the sustainability of the price trend.

Key fundamental values include:

• EV/EBIT: 25.68 (internal diagnostic score: 3.00)
• Accounts receivable turnover ratio: 5.94 (score: 4.00)
• Net profit attributable to parent company shareholders / Net profit: 100.00% (score: 1.00)
• Net cash flow from operating activities per share (YoY growth rate): -93.20% (score: 1.00)
• Diluted earnings per share (YoY growth rate): 18.85% (score: 2.00)

4. Money-Flow Trends

Big-money flows are showing mixed signals. While overall inflow ratio is slightly positive at 50.00%, the block inflow ratio is 49.92%, suggesting large institutional players are net sellers. In contrast, small and medium-sized investors are still net buyers, with inflow ratios at 50.79% and 50.48%, respectively. This disparity indicates potential pressure on the stock as large money moves out.

5. Key Technical Signals

The technical outlook for Qualcomm is clearly bearish. Over the last five days, there were five bearish signals and no bullish ones. Here's a breakdown of recent indicators and their internal diagnostic scores (0-10):

• WR Overbought: 1.00 (weak bearish signal, common and historically negative)
• Bearish Engulfing: 5.74 (moderately bearish, but with 60% win rate)
• Ex-Dividend Date: 1.28 (bearish bias, low win rate)
• Bullish Engulfing: 1.00 (bearish bias, historically very poor)
• Hanging Man: 3.46 (neutral bias, 50% win rate)

Recent chart patterns include a WR Overbought signal on September 12 and a Hanging Man on September 8, both suggesting caution. The technical score for the stock is 2.29, and the trend is weak—strongly suggesting traders should avoid it.

6. Conclusion

Qualcomm’s stock is showing mixed signals at the moment. While fundamentals remain stable, technical indicators are weak, and analyst consensus is split. Given the bearish momentum and the recent outflows from institutional investors, it may be wise to avoid entering new long positions for now. Consider waiting for a clearer trend or a pull-back before committing capital to Qualcomm.