Qualcomm Outlook - A Technical Weakness and Mixed Analyst Sentiments

Market Snapshot

Qualcomm is facing a weak technical outlook with bearish signals dominating, suggesting investors might want to avoid or closely monitor the stock. The price has recently risen by 4.36%, but this trend appears to clash with the broader pessimistic market expectations.

News Highlights

• McKinsey analysis on U.S. tariffs and chip supply chains indicates potential instability for semiconductor firms like Qualcomm. The U.S. Court of International Trade's rulings suggest ongoing regulatory uncertainty in this sector.
• The U.S. Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) faced a $750 million net outflow in May 2025, indicating a withdrawal of capital from the sector and possibly signaling investor concerns over growth potential and macroeconomic headwinds.
• Japan's proposal for increased cooperation with the U.S. on rare earths and semiconductors aims to counter China's dominance in this space. If implemented, such measures could impact global supply chains and, indirectly, Qualcomm’s competitive positioning.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analysts are divided on Qualcomm, with a simple average rating score of 4.00 and a performance-weighted rating of 1.88. This dispersion highlights the lack of consensus. For instance:

• Rosenblatt's Kevin Cassidy recently gave a “Strong Buy” with a strong historical win rate of 66.7%, contrasting with UBS’s Timothy Arcuri, who has a 0.0% win rate and rated it as underperform.
• JP Morgan’s Samik Chatterjee has shown poor historical performance (16.7% win rate), but has been moderately active, adding further uncertainty.

Fundamental Overview

• EV/EBIT of 25.68 with an internal diagnostic score of 1.45 suggests a mixed fundamental valuation.
• Net profit attributable to parent company shareholders / Net profit is at 100.00%, indicating full retention of profits, and it carries a 1.45 score.
• Total profit (YoY growth rate %) is 23.44%, but its score remains 1.45, suggesting a disconnect between performance and model expectations.
• Diluted earnings per share (YoY growth rate %) is 18.85%, with a model score of 1.45, reflecting a growth-positive signal but still rated weakly.
• Cash-MV is at -0.13 with a score of 1.45, hinting at possible cash flow challenges.

Money-Flow Trends

Big-money players are showing mixed signals with large-scale inflows and outflows in balance. The overall inflow ratio is 0.5065, with positive trends in the medium, small, and extra-large fund flows, while the large block shows a negative trend. Retail (small) investors, however, are clearly net positive, with a 0.5066 inflow ratio. This suggests that while big players are cautious, retail investors are still optimistic about Qualcomm's prospects.

Key Technical Signals

Qualcomm’s technical indicators are highly bearish, with 5 out of 6 indicators leaning negative. Here’s a breakdown of recent signals and internal diagnostic scores:

• WR Overbought has an internal diagnostic score of 1.00 and suggests overbought conditions with a poor historical win rate.
• Bearish Engulfing has a score of 5.74, indicating a potentially neutral to slightly bullish signal, but its low win rate (60.0%) means caution is warranted.
• Ex-Dividend Date has a score of 1.28 and is historically weak, with an average return of -1.37%.
• Hanging Man has a score of 3.46, suggesting a potential reversal pattern, though it still has a 50.0% win rate.

Recent Chart Patterns

Qualcomm’s chart has shown several recent patterns:

• 2025-09-12: WR Overbought was observed.
• 2025-09-03: Bearish Engulfing occurred.
• 2025-09-04: Ex-Dividend Date and Bullish Engulfing were both in play.
• 2025-09-08: A Hanging Man pattern was identified.

These patterns suggest a bearish bias, with mixed outcomes.

Overall, technical indicators confirm a weak trend, and the model recommends avoiding the stock due to the dominance of bearish signals and limited bullish support.

Conclusion

Given the weak technical profile, mixed analyst views, and internal diagnostic score of 2.29, Qualcomm may be best left for more patient investors. With the current price rising but technical signals bearish, consider waiting for a potential pull-back before making a move. Keep an eye on the next earnings report for more clarity on fundamentals and strategic direction.