Qualcomm Outlook - A Bearish Signal Amid Mixed Analyst Ratings

Market Snapshot

Headline takeaway: Qualcomm faces a weak technical outlook with no bullish indicators and five bearish signals, while the stock has seen a modest 0.68% rise recently. The overall trend is bearish, and caution is advised.

News Highlights

Recent developments in the semiconductor sector continue to shape the landscape for Qualcomm:

• McKinsey on Tariffs and Chip Supply Chains: New analysis from McKinsey highlights the impact of U.S. tariffs on semiconductor supply chains, adding uncertainty for companies like Qualcomm in a sector already facing geopolitical and trade challenges.
• Japan-U.S. Cooperation on Rare Earths and Semiconductors: Japan announced plans to collaborate with the U.S. on rare earths and semiconductor supply chains, aiming to reduce reliance on China. This could indirectly benefit Qualcomm by stabilizing long-term supply.
• ETF Outflow for SOXX: The U.S. Semiconductors ETF (SOXX) faced a $750 million net outflow in May 2025, reflecting broader investor caution in the sector. Qualcomm's positioning within this ETF could be affected by such outflows.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

The average rating score for Qualcomm from the past 20 days is 4.00, while the performance-weighted score is a much lower 1.88, suggesting a mismatch between the number of positive ratings and their historical success rates. The ratings are not consistent, with a mix of "Buy," "Strong Buy," and "Neutral" from different analysts:

• Piper Sandler (Harsh Kumar): "Buy" with a historical win rate of 50.0%.
• UBS (Timothy Arcuri): "Neutral" with a 0.0% win rate, making this a red flag.
• Rosenblatt (Kevin Cassidy): "Strong Buy" with a strong 66.7% historical win rate.
• JP Morgan (Samik Chatterjee): "Buy" with a poor 16.7% win rate.

This disparity contrasts with Qualcomm’s 0.68% price rise in recent days, indicating analysts’ expectations may not align with market sentiment. On the fundamental side, here are key metrics and their internal diagnostic scores (0-10):

• Net profit attributable to parent company shareholders / Net profit: 100.00% (Score: 1)
• EV/EBIT: 25.68 (Score: 2)
• Net cash flow from operating activities per share (YoY growth): -93.11% (Score: 1)
• Cash-UP: -0.38 (Score: 3)
• Net profit attributable to parent company shareholders (YoY growth): 17.65% (Score: 1)

Money-Flow Trends

Qualcomm is experiencing a positive overall fund-flow trend, with inflows across all categories, including small, medium, and extra-large investors. Here's a breakdown of the inflow ratios:

• Small investor inflow ratio: 50.93%
• Medium investor inflow ratio: 50.61%
• Large investor inflow ratio: 49.70%
• Extra-large investor inflow ratio: 50.49%
• Overall inflow ratio: 50.37%

The internal diagnostic fund-flow score is 7.34 (good), indicating positive institutional and large-cap investor interest despite the weak technical signals.

Key Technical Signals

Qualcomm is flashing multiple bearish signals in its recent technical analysis:

• WR Overbought (Score: 1): A bearish indicator with a historical win rate of 30.91% and an average return of -1.37%.
• Bullish Engulfing (Score: 1): Surprisingly bearish, with a historical win rate of just 12.5% and an average return of -2.0%.
• Hanging Man (Score: 1): A classic bearish reversal pattern with a win rate of 33.33% and an average return of -1.29%.
• Ex-Dividend Date (Score: 1.28): Weak bearish signal with a low win rate of 25%.
• Dividend Record Date (Score: 1.28): Also bearish, with an average return of 0.83%.
• Bearish Engulfing (Score: 5.74): A more neutral signal, with a win rate of 60% and a mild negative average return of -0.18%.

Key recent pattern dates:

• 2025-09-04: Ex-Dividend Date, Bullish Engulfing, Dividend Record Date.
• 2025-08-28 & 2025-08-29: WR Overbought signals twice in two days.
• 2025-09-08: Hanging Man pattern spotted.

Overall, the technical trend is weak with 5 bearish vs. 0 bullish indicators, and the internal diagnostic technical score is 1.88. The model advises to avoid the stock at this juncture.

Conclusion

With mixed analyst ratings, a strong but historically underperforming ETF sector, and overwhelmingly bearish technical signals, Qualcomm appears to be at a crossroads. While institutional inflows remain positive, the fundamentals and chart patterns suggest caution. Investors are advised to consider waiting for a clearer trend or a pull-back before taking a position.