Qtum/Tether (QTUMUSDT) Market Overview: Intraday Volatility and Bearish Momentum

• QTUMUSDT closed lower at $2.41 after a sharp intraday pullback from a high of $2.448.
• Key resistance appears to be forming around $2.435–$2.445, with strong bearish momentum.
• Volatility remains elevated, with turnover spiking during the late-ET recovery attempt.
• A 15-minute bearish engulfing pattern confirmed short-term bearish bias.
• RSI and MACD indicate oversold conditions, but divergence between price and momentum suggests caution.

Qtum/Tether (QTUMUSDT) opened at $2.429 on 2025-09-16 at 12:00 ET, reaching an intraday high of $2.448 and a low of $2.41 before closing at $2.41 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-17. The pair saw a 24-hour trading volume of 252,409.17 and a turnover of $625,392.66. Price action suggests a bearish shift after a failed attempt to re-test prior resistance.

Structure & Formations

Intraday price action displayed a bearish reversal pattern following a 15-minute bearish engulfing formation at the peak of the 2.44–2.45 resistance cluster. The pair also tested a prior support level at $2.42, which held briefly before breaking down to a new 24-hour low. A doji appeared at the $2.433 level, signaling indecision before the final leg down.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA are currently bearishly aligned, with price closing below both. The 50-period moving average is hovering near $2.435, forming a potential short-term ceiling. On a broader scale, the 50EMA, 100EMA, and 200EMA are all bearishly aligned, suggesting the pair is under medium-term bearish pressure.

MACD & RSI

MACD crossed into bearish territory and remained negative, with a shrinking histogram suggesting weakening bearish momentum, but no reversal yet. RSI reached oversold territory (below 30), but a divergence is forming—price making lower lows while RSI is not following through. This could signal a potential countertrend bounce, though confirmation is needed.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands remain wide, indicating high volatility, with price spending much of the 24-hour period near the lower band, suggesting bearish bias. A recent contraction at the 2.43–2.44 level suggests a possible consolidation before a breakout, though the recent close near the lower band points to a likely continuation lower.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume peaked during the afternoon ET session, coinciding with a failed rally to 2.448. Notional turnover also spiked during the failed rebound but declined during the final leg down. This suggests reduced conviction among bullish traders. A divergence between price and volume is visible in the last 2–3 hours, hinting at exhaustion on the short side.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 2.41–2.448 swing, the 61.8% level is at $2.429, which is now acting as immediate resistance. The 38.2% level is at $2.434. A bounce from $2.41 (support) would test the 61.8% level, but a close below $2.41 could target the next Fibonacci level at $2.403.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish engulfing pattern, failed retests of key resistance, and divergence in RSI, a short-biased strategy could be tested. One hypothesis is to enter short positions on a confirmed break below the 2.42 support level with a stop just above the 2.43–2.44 resistance cluster. Targets could be set at the 2.41 (first), 2.403 (second), and 2.392 (third) levels, using 15-minute and 1-hour candle closures as confirmation triggers. This approach would align with the current technical setup and could be backtested using a 20SMA/50SMA crossover as an additional filter for trend confirmation.