Qtum/Tether (QTUMUSDT) Market Overview

Summary
• Price dropped from 1.764 to 1.738, showing bearish pressure in 24 hours.
• Volume remained elevated during bearish phases but did not confirm a strong reversal.
• RSI entered oversold territory but failed to spark a rebound, suggesting potential exhaustion or lack of buyers.

Market Action and Structure

Qtum/Tether (QTUMUSDT) opened at 1.761 on 2025-11-05 at 12:00 ET and closed at 1.738 on 2025-11-06 at 12:00 ET, hitting a 24-hour high of 1.774 and a low of 1.731. The pair traded on a total volume of 392,030.2 and a notional turnover of approximately $695,342. The price action shows a bearish bias with multiple lower highs and lower lows, suggesting a continuation of a short-term downtrend.

Key support levels to watch are 1.736–1.742, as the price has bounced off these levels a few times during the session. Resistance levels are now at 1.75–1.756, which were recently broken and could become retesting zones. Notable candlestick patterns include a bearish engulfing pattern at 1.773 on 2025-11-05 03:15, followed by a long lower shadow at 1.755 on 2025-11-05 05:30, signaling potential bearish control.

Technical Indicators and Momentum

The 15-minute moving averages indicate a bearish alignment: the 20-period MA is below the 50-period MA, reinforcing the downtrend. The RSI is currently in oversold territory at around 28, but it has not triggered a strong rebound, suggesting the sell-off may not be over yet.

The MACD histogram has been shrinking in size, indicating weakening bearish momentum. However, the MACD line remains below the signal line, and the overall trend is still negative. Bollinger Bands show a moderate contraction in volatility, with prices lingering near the lower band, typical of a consolidation or continuation pattern.

Fibonacci Retracements and Volume

Fibonacci retracement levels for the recent 1.731–1.774 swing show that the price is currently approaching the 61.8% level at 1.751, which could act as a key retest for bearish continuation. If rejected here, the next target would be the 78.6% level at 1.724.

Volume distribution reflects bearish dominance, particularly during the afternoon and evening hours on 2025-11-05. A large volume spike occurred at 1.774 on 2025-11-05 23:00, coinciding with a high, while the following bearish reversal candles had lower volume. This suggests a potential exhaustion of the current bearish wave, though confirmation is pending.

Backtest Hypothesis

To refine the understanding of QTUMUSDT's behavior under bearish divergence signals, a backtest using a “MACD Top Divergence” strategy could provide valuable insights. This strategy would flag divergences where price forms a higher high, but MACD forms a lower high—often a precursor to trend reversal. Given the current alignment of RSI, MACD, and price behavior, this methodology could be effectively applied to QTUMUSDT. However, due to data limitations, the strategy’s implementation requires:

1. Confirming the correct ticker symbol (e.g., BINANCE:QTUMUSDT).
2. Either providing a pre-identified list of divergence dates or programmatically detecting these events using the price and MACD data.
3. Selecting the appropriate price source (e.g., daily closes) for the backtest.

Once these parameters are clarified, the strategy can be applied from 2022-01-01 through the current date, with results including performance metrics and an interactive chart to visualize trade signals and outcomes.