QQQ Outlook: Google & Tesla Earnings in Focus as Mega-Caps Drive Nasdaq Momentum

The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), tracking the Nasdaq-100 Index, has surged 10.07% YTD, outpacing its large-growth ETF peers (7.06%). Strong Q2 tech earnings powered a quarterly return of 17.8% for QQQ, well ahead of the S&P 500’s 10.9% gain. Yet, investors rotated out in recent weeks: QQQ logged $3.72 billion in outflows this week ending July 21, hinting at profit-taking even as tech fundamentals remain robust.

Big-Tech Earnings Beat

Apple (AAPL): Q2 revenue of $95.4 billion and EPS $1.65 topped forecasts of $94.7 billion and $1.63 . Supply-chain diversification offset tariff pressures.

Microsoft (MSFT): Q3 sales $70.1 billion vs. $68.5 billion expected, and EPS $3.46 vs. $3.22, driven by cloud-services strength.

NVIDIA (NVDA): Raised guidance after a 45% YoY GPU-sales jump, underscoring AI demand.

Structural Vote

Invesco’s proposal to convert QQQ into an open-end fund—cutting its expense ratio to 0.18% and enabling securities lending—could enhance net returns if approved on October 24.

Upcoming Earnings to Watch

Alphabet (GOOGL) will report Q2 results after the close on July 23, 2025, with consensus estimates calling for $2.18 EPS on about $94 billion in revenue . Investors will focus on AI-driven ad revenue growth and any update on regulatory risks.

Tesla (TSLA) also reports after the close on July 23, 2025, with analysts forecasting $0.33 EPS on $22.7 billion in sales, a decline reflecting softer deliveries and tariff headwinds. Market reaction may hinge on any crypto-related gains and progress on robotaxi initiatives.

Outlook & Risks

Tailwinds: Continued AI investment across QQQ’s mega-caps, structural fee savings if the fund-conversion vote passes, and strong balance sheets support further upside.

Risks: Rising Treasury yields could pressure high-growth multiples; any slowdown in consumer tech upgrades or enterprise IT spending would weigh on QQQ heavyweights. Geopolitical tensions—particularly U.S.-China tech frictions—remain potential disruptors.

Bottom Line

QQQ’s concentration in market leaders and AI beneficiaries positions it well for the tech-led bull run. However, investors should monitor valuation levels, rotating fund flows, and the twin earnings reports from Alphabet and Tesla, which may set the tone for the remainder of Q3.

Discover how QQQ stacks up against rival ETFs, use our ETF Compare Tool