QQQ Options Signal Caution: Put/Call Imbalance and Whale Moves Highlight Key Support at $600–610

• Put/call open interest ratio hits 1.64, with heavy bearish positioning at $615 and $600 strikes
• Block trades reveal $4.2M put sale ahead of ex-dividend date; $12.8M call block at $570 for June 2026
• RSI at 47.14 suggests oversold territory, but Bollinger Bands show price near lower bound

Here’s the thing: QQQ’s options market is whispering caution while technicals hint at a potential rebound. The stock trades at $620.34, down 0.09% from its 52-week high, but long-term moving averages (30D: $613.94, 200D: $556.44) still trend upward. The real drama? A put/call imbalance that screams "expect volatility" and block trades hinting at big money moves.

Where Options Are Betting: Puts Dominate at Key Levels

The options chain tells a story of divided expectations. For this Friday’s expiration (Jan 2, 2026), puts at $615 ($OI: 65,668) and $600 ($OI: 59,718) dwarf call volume at $621 ($OI: 18,269). This suggests institutional players are hedging against a pullback—or positioning for a test of the 30D support zone ($608.32–$609.16).

But don’t write off the bulls yet. The $625 and $630 calls have decent liquidity, and a block trade of 5,000 contracts at QQQ20251219C630 ($3.475M) hints at strategic buying ahead of the dividend payout. Meanwhile, a $4.2M put block (QQQ20251219P545) suggests some big players are locking in downside protection as the ex-dividend date (Dec 22) looms.

News Flow: Dividend Boost vs Institutional Jitters

The $0.7941 dividend hike (0.5% yield) is a positive, but it’s not enough to offset the bearish options chatter. Institutional moves tell a mixed tale: Pinkerton Wealth juiced its QQQ stake by 1,112.8%, while Sun Life trimmed its position by 1.3%. Retail investors might be tempted to chase the dividend, but the put-heavy options market warns: "Don’t assume the rally is over."

Actionable Trades: Puts for Protection, Calls for Breakouts

For options traders, the most compelling plays are:

• Bearish: Buy QQQ20260102P615 puts. With $615 near the 30D support zone, a break below $610 could trigger a test of the lower Bollinger Band ($605.30).
• Bullish: Buy QQQ20260102C625 calls. If QQQ holds above $619.31 (middle Bollinger Band), a rebound to the 200D MA ($556.44) could lure buyers back.

For stock traders:

• Buy near $608.32 if QQQ holds above $605.30 (lower Bollinger Band). Target: $622.59 (200D resistance zone).
• Short near $615 if the 30D support breaks. Stop-loss above $622.58.

Volatility on the Horizon

The next 72 hours will be critical. QQQ needs to hold above $619.31 to keep the long-term bullish trend intact. If it cracks $605.30, the 200D MA becomes a psychological hurdle. Either way, the options market has priced in a 1.64x put/call skew—so don’t be surprised if we see a sharp move, one way or the other. This isn’t just noise; it’s a setup waiting to play out.