QQQ Options Signal Bullish Breakout: Key Strikes and Block Trades to Watch for 2026

• QQQ trades at $620.00, down 0.62% from its 52-week high of $637.01.
• Options data shows heavy put open interest at $600 and call OI at $625 ahead of Friday’s expiry.
• Institutional block trades suggest mixed positioning, with $4.2M in put sales and $3.8M in call buys.

Here’s the core insight: QQQ’s options market is pricing in a high-probability range between $600 and $635, with institutional players hedging downside risk while retail sentiment leans cautiously bullish. The stock’s technicals—bullish in the short and long term—align with a potential breakout, but the put/call ratio (1.61) warns of lingering bearish caution.

What Options Activity Reveals About Market Sentiment

The options chain tells a story of divided priorities. This Friday’s expiring puts have QQQ20260102P600 as the most watched strike, with 59,494 open contracts—nearly 5x the next put. That’s a red flag: big money is hedging a drop to $600, a level just above the 200D moving average ($555.68). Meanwhile, calls at QQQ20260102C625 (13,275 OI) and QQQ20260102C630 (9,079 OI) suggest retail traders are betting on a rebound to $635–$640.

But don’t ignore the block trades. A $4.2M sale of QQQ20251219P545 (a deep put expiring this week) signals institutions are locking in protection below $545. Conversely, $3.8M in call purchases (like QQQ20251219C630) hints at bullish positioning for a short-term rally. The takeaway? QQQ could gap lower if macro risks flare, but a rebound to $635 is in play if the Nasdaq-100’s AI-driven tech darlings outperform.

How Recent News Shapes the Narrative

The latest headlines paint QQQ as a "buy candidate," with a 3-month price target of $658.70. WorthPointe LLC’s 59.6% stake increase in Q3 2025—now holding $3.13M in shares—backs this optimism. The ETF’s 0.5% dividend yield (up from prior quarters) also sweetens the long-term case for income-focused investors.

Yet the $3.13M institutional bet isn’t a free pass. QQQ’s 30D support at $608.32 is critical; a breakdown here could trigger a test of the 200D MA ($555.68). Retail traders might be overestimating the ETF’s resilience if tech earnings disappoint or rate hike fears resurface. The options market’s bearish skew (1.61 put/call ratio) reflects this tension.

Actionable Trades for QQQ on Dec 29, 2025

For options traders, consider these setups:

• Bullish Play: Buy QQQ20260102C625 (strike price $625, expiring Jan 2). QQQ needs to close above this level to confirm a breakout. If it does, the call could gain 15–20% as the ETF targets $635–$640.
• Bearish Hedge: Buy QQQ20260102P600 (strike $600). With 59,494 open contracts, this is the most liquid put for downside protection. A drop below $619.03 (Bollinger Band middle) would validate the trade.

For stock traders, here’s a concrete plan:

• Entry: Consider buying QQQ near $608.32 (30D support) if it holds. A close above $622.59 (200D resistance) would signal strength.
• Targets: First, take profits at $626 (next resistance). Second, aim for $637 (52-week high) if the Nasdaq-100’s AI stocks surge.
• Stop-Loss: Exit below $605 to avoid a breakdown to the 200D MA.

Volatility on the Horizon

QQQ’s path in 2026 hinges on three factors: tech earnings, Fed policy, and AI adoption trends. The options market is already pricing in a $600–$635 range for early January, but a surprise rate cut or earnings slump could widen that window. For now, the data points to a high-probability trade between these levels—just keep an eye on the QQQ20260102P600 and QQQ20260102C630 strikes. They’ll tell you when the crowd’s sentiment shifts.