QQQ at Crossroads: Heavy Put OI at $615 vs. Bullish Technicals – Is Support the Key Entry?

• Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) trades at $618.38, down 0.17% with volume surging to 21.2M shares.
• Options market shows 1.64x put/call open interest imbalance, with 66,083 puts at the $615 strike dominating this Friday’s chain.
• Block trade alert: 5,000 puts sold at $630 strike (QQQ20251219P630) ahead of expiry.

Here’s the tension: QQQ’s technicals scream bullish momentum while options traders are hedging for a potential breakdown. The stock is clinging to its 30-day moving average ($614.29) and faces immediate support at $615—where the options market is already bracing for a fight.

The Pressure Cooker at $615: Puts vs. Bulls

The options market isn’t just watching QQQ—it’s betting on it. This Friday’s put open interest peaks at the $615 strike (66,083 contracts), a level that feels like a psychological "firewall" for bears. But here’s the twist: QQQ’s 200-day moving average ($622.59) and bullish Kline pattern suggest this ETF isn’t ready to break down. The MACD (1.88) and RSI (45.3) hint at a potential rebound if the stock holds above $615.

Block trades add intrigue. The QQQ20251219P630 put block (5,000 contracts sold) suggests some big players are either shorting QQQ or hedging existing long positions. Meanwhile, the $625 call (14,405 OI) and $635 call (8,892 OI) show retail and institutional interest in a limited upside play. The risk? If QQQ cracks $615, those puts could trigger a cascade of stop-loss orders.

Fee Cuts and AI Wins: News That Could Tilt the Scales

QQQ just got a double boost. Shareholders approved a fee reduction, trimming costs for investors in a crowded ETF space. This move alone could attract new inflows, especially with dollar-cost averaging strategies highlighted in recent analyses. Then there’s Western Digital’s Nasdaq-100 inclusion—a win for QQQ’s AI-focused portfolio. WDC’s storage solutions are critical for AI growth, and its addition to the index means QQQ now captures more of that narrative.

But here’s the catch: the options market isn’t pricing in this optimism. The put/call imbalance (1.64x) suggests traders are hedging against a broader market rotation out of tech. If the Nasdaq-100 stumbles in early 2026, QQQ’s AI tilt could amplify downside risks.

Trade Ideas: Calls for the Brave, Puts for the Pragmatic

For options traders:

• Bullish Play: Buy QQQ20260102C625 calls if QQQ holds above $615. The $625 strike is the first major resistance (30D support/res: 623.42–624.25). With QQQ’s 100D MA at $601.85, a break above $625 could trigger a rally toward $635.
• Bearish Play: Buy QQQ20260102P615 puts if the stock breaks below $616. The $615 strike is a liquidity magnet—price action here could confirm a shift in sentiment.

For stock traders:

• Entry: Consider buying QQQ near $615 if it holds above the lower Bollinger Band ($605.45). Target $625 as a short-term goal, with a stop-loss below $610.
• Longer-Term: For next Friday’s chain, the QQQ20260109C635 call (4,898 OI) offers a high-risk/high-reward setup if QQQ breaks out of its consolidation phase.

Volatility on the Horizon

The next 72 hours will test QQQ’s resolve. A close above $620 would validate the bulls, while a drop below $615 could unleash the puts. Either way, the options market has already priced in a binary outcome—up to $635 or down to $600. For traders, the key is to align with the direction that matches both technical levels and news flow. QQQ isn’t just tracking the Nasdaq-100 anymore; it’s becoming a barometer for AI’s next chapter.