QKCUSDT Market Overview: Volatility and Momentum Divergence on 2025-11-08

Summary
• Price action shows a strong intraday rally followed by a sharp correction late in the session.
• RSI and MACD signal overbought levels and diverging momentum in the final hours.
• Volume surges during the late-session sell-off, suggesting increased bearish pressure.

QuarkChain/Tether (QKCUSDT) opened at $0.004871 at 12:00 ET − 1 and reached a high of $0.005159 before closing at $0.004987 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour trading range spanned from $0.004867 to $0.005159. Total volume was 152,368,090.0, and notional turnover amounted to $758,985.93 (using the 15-minute OHLCV data).

Structure & Formations

Price action formed a bearish reversal pattern in the final candle of the session, with a long upper wick signaling rejection near the $0.005050 level. This coincided with a potential support zone near the $0.004940–0.004980 range, where price found temporary stability earlier. A strong engulfing candle in the early morning hours indicated a bullish breakout attempt that failed in the afternoon, leading to a retest of earlier supports.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed above the 50-period MA early in the morning, signaling a bullish bias. However, the 50-period MA began to flatten as the session progressed, reflecting fading upward momentum. On the daily time frame, the 50-period MA sits above the 100 and 200-period MAs, but price remains below all, suggesting the pair may remain range-bound in the short term.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed above the signal line in the early part of the session, supporting the short-lived bullish breakout. However, it quickly reversed to a bearish cross as price corrected, with the histogram shrinking in the final hours. The RSI hit an overbought level of 70 in the early afternoon but fell sharply to the 40–50 range by the session’s end, indicating bearish momentum is gaining strength.

Bollinger Bands

Price moved above the upper Bollinger Band in the late morning hours, indicating a brief spike in volatility. However, it closed well below the upper band by the session’s end, settling near the midline. The band’s width remained moderate, suggesting no significant contraction or expansion in volatility.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked late in the session, particularly in the 6:00–7:00 AM ET timeframe, as price corrected from the $0.005050 level. This divergence between price and volume suggests bearish conviction among traders. Notional turnover mirrored volume patterns, with the largest spike occurring during the sharp sell-off around 6:00 AM ET.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the most recent 15-minute rally from $0.004987 to $0.005159, the 61.8% retracement level is at $0.005066, which was tested and rejected in the late session. The 50% level at $0.005073 is now a potential key resistance. On the daily chart, the 38.2% and 61.8% retracement levels from the 2025 high are likely to act as psychological barriers ahead.

Backtest Hypothesis

To test the "buying at support and holding until a breakout" strategy, a well-defined support level is essential. A logical approach is using the 50-period low as the support trigger. For breakout confirmation, a price close above the 50-period high could serve as the exit signal. To mitigate risk, a stop-loss at 5% below the entry price and a 10% take-profit target could be added. Daily close prices will be used for signal generation. This setup aligns with observed Fibonacci and moving average levels, offering a rules-based approach to testing the strategy.