QCP Capital: Late-Cycle Resilience Defies Crypto Plunge and Geopolitical Jitters

Global financial markets are exhibiting classic late-cycle characteristics, according to QCP Capital, which argues that recent turbulence does not signal an impending recession. The firm's analysis, released amid a week of mixed economic signals and corporate earnings, highlights the interplay of central bank policies, investor sentiment, and sector-specific dynamics shaping market behavior.

The firm's assessment comes as the U.S. Federal Reserve's December rate-cut odds have plummeted to 30%, reflecting uncertainty over inflationary pressures and economic resilience. QCP Capital's commentary contrasts with the bearish trends in crypto markets, where Bitcoin and Ethereum have fallen over 20% in 30 days, dragging down related equities such as Circle and Bitmine. Meanwhile, BlackRock's iShares Staked Ethereum Trust ETF faced a record $523 million outflow on November 19, exacerbating broader market jitters.

Corporate activity underscores the complexity of the current environment. Qfin Holdings, a China-based credit-tech platform, reported a 39–49% year-on-year decline in fourth-quarter net income, attributing the drop to macroeconomic uncertainties and risk-averse business strategies. The company's management emphasized prudence, projecting non-GAAP net income between RMB1.0 billion and RMB1.2 billion for Q4 2025. Such caution mirrors broader market sentiment, with QCP Capital noting that investors are recalibrating expectations as central banks delay stimulus measures.

The energy and logistics sectors, however, show resilience. Capital Clean Energy Carriers Corp. announced the sale of a neo-panamax container vessel, with a fleet of six LNG-powered ships set for delivery between 2026 and 2027. The company's expansion aligns with global decarbonization goals, even as it navigates regulatory and market risks. Separately, lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery producers are capitalizing on surging demand for electric vehicles and renewable energy storage, with the market projected to grow at a 14.2% CAGR through 2030.

QCP Capital's dismissal of recessionary signals is further supported by the performance of infrastructure and technology stocks. Jacobs Engineering, for instance, reported a 16% year-on-year increase in adjusted EPS for Q4 2025, driven by growth in critical infrastructure and energy projects. The firm's backlog and sector diversification-spanning transportation, water, and life sciences-highlight the structural demand underpinning long-term economic activity.

The coming months will test market resilience as investors weigh central bank actions against corporate performance. QCP Capital advocates for a focus on late-cycle opportunities, including AI-driven productivity gains and green technology adoption. Yet, with geopolitical tensions and energy market volatility persisting, the path forward remains fraught with uncertainty.