Q4 2025 Earnings Call Contradictions: Shifting U.S. Construction Outlook, Pricing Pressures, and Recovery Timelines Diverge

Date of Call: Jan 13, 2026

Financials Results

• Revenue: $108.8M, compared to $111.5M in the prior year quarter (slight year-over-year decline)
• EPS: $0.09 per diluted share, compared to $0.16 in the prior year quarter
• Gross Margin: 39.8%, down 170 basis points from 41.5% a year ago

Guidance:

• Revenue for fiscal 2026 expected to range between $390-$410 million.
• Adjusted EBITDA for fiscal 2026 expected to range between $90-$100 million.
• Free cash flow expected to be at least $40 million.
• Expects 2026 revenue to be roughly flat year-over-year in infrastructure and residential end markets.
• Guidance assumes no meaningful recovery in construction markets during fiscal 2026.
• Plans to invest approximately $22 million in accelerated fleet investment from 2027 into 2026.

Business Commentary:

Financial Performance and Market Conditions:

• Concrete Pumping Holdings reported revenue of $108.8 million for Q4 2025, compared to $111.5 million in the prior year quarter, reflecting a slight decline.
• The decrease was due to timing delays in commercial construction activity and softness in residential demand driven by high-interest rates.

Segment Performance and Growth:

• Revenue in the U.S. concrete pumping segment was $72.2 million, down from $74.5 million the previous year, while the U.S. concrete waste management services segment saw an 8% increase to $21.3 million.
• The waste management segment's growth was driven by higher pan pickup volumes and pricing momentum, whereas the pumping segment was affected by commercial construction delays and residential demand softness.

Capital Investment and Regulatory Compliance:

• The company is accelerating a $22 million investment into fiscal 2026 in anticipation of stricter NOx emission standards effective January 1, 2027.
• This move is to navigate expected disruptions and price increases in truck technology, ensuring operational continuity and competitive positioning.

Outlook and Strategic Positioning:

• For fiscal 2026, the company expects revenue to range between $390-$410 million, with Adjusted EBITDA between $90-$100 million, assuming no significant recovery in construction markets.
• Strategic investments in fleet and acquisitions, like the recent acquisition in Ireland, are aimed at strengthening service offerings and capitalizing on long-term demand drivers in new regions.

Sentiment Analysis:

Overall Tone: Neutral

• Management acknowledges a challenging macroeconomic backdrop and expects construction markets to remain challenged, but highlights the durability of their operating model, steady growth in waste management, and proactive investment ahead of emission standards. They express optimism on residential market improvement and believe the company is well positioned for a market recovery.

Q&A:

• Question from Tim Mulrooney (William Blair): Can you talk about the drivers behind the modest revenue growth in the guidance? Is it primarily from acquisition or organic growth?
  Response: The growth is expected to come from pricing improvement on relatively flat volumes, not from acquisitions.

• Question from Tim Mulrooney (William Blair): What are the primary drivers of expected margin pressure in 2026 given low single-digit top-line growth?
  Response: The primary driver is lower fleet utilization due to flat volumes, leading to a marginal decline in margin percentage.

• Question from Tim Mulrooney (William Blair): What is the outlook for the residential construction market?
  Response: In key regions, residential demand was softer last year but is starting to improve slightly, with optimism expected this year.

• Question from Brent Thielman (D.A. Davidson): What are the growth expectations for the U.K. group and EcoPan?
  Response: U.K. revenue expected to be strong due to public spend (infrastructure, HS2, energy), but commercial market recovery is uncertain. EcoPan expected to return to high single-digit to double-digit growth. U.S. concrete pumping's commercial market is the key question, with strength in data centers and chip plants offsetting weakness in light commercial.

• Question from Brent Thielman (D.A. Davidson): Is EcoPan's growth contingent on new markets or can it be achieved in existing geographies?
  Response: Growth can be achieved through increasing density in existing markets, though there is also investment lag from new markets.

• Question from Brent Thielman (D.A. Davidson): Does the accelerated CapEx address all requirements for the new emission regulations?
  Response: Yes, the pull-forward addresses almost all of the issue, aiming to avoid the reliability disruptions experienced during the 2008 emissions change.

• Question from Andy Whitman (Baird): Why were EcoPan margins not as strong as expected?
  Response: Margin pressure was due to new region overhead investments, but ROI remains healthy.

• Question from Andy Whitman (Baird): What is the fuel price outlook and impact?
  Response: Fuel costs were largely flat year-over-year in the quarter, and are expected to remain stable for next year, not a headwind or tailwind.

• Question from Andy Whitman (Baird): Is the Ireland acquisition a one-off or part of a broader plan?
  Response: It is part of a broader plan; there are opportunities for additional acquisitions in Ireland.

• Question from Andy Whitman (Baird): What is the economic contribution of the Ireland acquisition?
  Response: The acquisition generates about $2M in revenue and $500k in EBITDA, with potential for scaling.

• Question from Andy Whitman (Baird): Have any projects been cancelled, and what is the backlog status?
  Response: Some office and manufacturing projects have been shelved, but the company remains in line for potential future projects. Strength is offset by growth in data centers and chip plants.

Contradiction Point 1

U.S. Commercial Construction Market Outlook

The assessment of the commercial market's recovery timing and current state shows inconsistency between the quarters.

What is the current outlook for the residential construction market—is it softening, stabilizing, or recovering? - Tim Mulrooney (William Blair)

2025Q4: In key regions, residential demand was softer last year but is starting to improve slightly, with expectations for further improvement during the year... The company is optimistic on residential due to moderating mortgage rates and the Federal Reserve's path to rate reductions. - Bruce Young(CEO)

Could you clarify the implied guidance for Q4, particularly the margin increase despite lower revenue, and discuss the recovery outlook and changes since last quarter's commentary? - Andrew J. Wittmann (Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated, Research Division)

2025Q3: Bidding activity has increased slightly. Residential remains resilient. U.S. infrastructure projects are starting more rapidly... The company is becoming more optimistic for next year but it's too early to predict. - Bruce Young(CEO)

Contradiction Point 2

Pricing Pressure in the U.S. Business

The expected duration of pricing pressure is presented differently in the two quarters.

What's driving the modest revenue growth in the 2026 guidance—primarily acquisitions or organic growth? - Tim Mulrooney (William Blair)

2025Q4: The expected revenue growth is primarily due to pricing improvement on largely consistent year-over-year volumes... - Iain Humphries(CFO)

Is pricing pressure in the U.S. business stabilizing or still a factor? - Brent Thielman (D.A. Davidson & Co., Research Division)

2025Q3: Pricing pressure still exists as competitors target more complex projects and residential markets are soft. This is expected to continue for about six more months before easing with market recovery. - Bruce Young(CEO)

Contradiction Point 3

Commercial Market Recovery Timing

The expected timeline for commercial market recovery differs between the U.K. and U.S. markets.

What is the current outlook for the residential construction market trend (softening, stabilizing, or recovering)? - Tim Mulrooney (William Blair)

2025Q4: In key regions, residential demand was softer last year but is starting to improve slightly, with expectations for further improvement during the year... The company is optimistic on residential... - Bruce Young(CEO)

Does a 2027 construction recovery imply continued 2026 decline, and what is the recovery's trajectory over the next 12-18 months? - Benjamin Luke McFadden (William Blair & Company L.L.C., Research Division)

2025Q3: A recovery is expected by 2027, but the exact timing within 2026 is uncertain. The company is not comfortable providing guidance for 2026 at this time. - Bruce Young(CEO)

Contradiction Point 4

Timeline for Commercial Construction Market Recovery

The expected timing for the commercial construction market to recover is presented differently between the two quarters.

What are the outlook and expectations for the U.K. group and EcoPan in 2026? - Brent Thielman (D.A. Davidson)

2025Q4: The commercial market recovery is uncertain and may lag the U.S. by about six months. - Bruce Young(CEO)

Does the comment about no meaningful construction market recovery until 2026 apply to both commercial and residential sectors, or is it specific to a particular end market? - Benjamin Luke McFadden (William Blair & Company L.L.C.)

2025Q2: The commercial market recovery is anticipated once tariff-related delays subside and interest rates are reduced... optimism that the commercial market could recover quickly once the tariff situation stabilizes. - Bruce F. Young(CEO)

Contradiction Point 5

Nature of Project Delays in Commercial Construction

The primary cause of project delays in the commercial segment is described differently.

Have any planned projects been cancelled due to high-interest rate delays, and what is the current backlog status? - Andy Whitman (Baird)

2025Q4: Concern is limited to office buildings and some manufacturing projects, which have been shelved with no clear timeline for restart. - Bruce Young(CEO)

Has there been an increase in project delays since April? - Jean Franco Veliz (D.A. Davidson & Co.)

2025Q2: Project delays, particularly in commercial construction, are largely linked to tariff-related uncertainty. - Bruce F. Young(CEO)