Q3 2025 Contradictions: Power, HPC, and Infrastructure Discrepancies Revealed

Date of Call: November 3, 2025

Financials Results

• Revenue: $72M, up 65% sequentially from $44M in Q2 2025
• EPS: GAAP net loss of $0.01 per share, compared to a net loss of $0.12 per share in the prior quarter; adjusted earnings of $0.10 per share, up ~34% sequentially

Guidance:

• AWS: 300 MW gross capacity; approx $5.5B contract revenue over initial 15-year term; delivered in 2 phases beginning July 2026 with rent commencing August 2026.
• Fluidstack/Google (Barber Lake): 168 MW critical IT; approx $3B over 10 years (options to ~$7B over 20 years); full delivery by Sept 30, 2026; lease expected to commence Oct 2026.
• Colchis: 1 GW site with Direct Connect to AEP; targeted power availability in 2028; Cipher expects ~95% JV ownership upon turnkey lease.
• Financing: intend to use debt to fund majority of construction with remaining obligations from cash on hand; $1.3B convertible proceeds to support construction and working capital.

Business Commentary:

• HPC Pivot and Accelerated Demand:
• Cipher Mining announced two landmark HPC transactions, including a 10-year, 168 megawatt AI Hosting Agreement with Fluidstack and Google and a 15-year agreement with Amazon Web Services for 300 megawatts.
• The company's contracted AI hosting capacity grew from 0 megawatts last quarter to 544 megawatts this quarter.

• This shift was driven by the increasing demand for AI workloads and a strategic focus on HPC data center development in energy-rich regions of Texas.

• Financial Performance and Capital Raise:

• Cipher Mining reported $72 million in revenue for Q3 2025, up 65% from the previous quarter.
• The company raised $1.3 billion through a convertible offering, which was 7x oversubscribed.

• The strong financial performance was primarily due to increased bitcoin price and production, while the successful capital raise positions Cipher to capitalize on its expanding business model and HPC pipeline.

• Energy Portfolio and Production:

• Cipher's bitcoin mining operations reached an efficiency of 16.8 joules per terahash, among the most efficient in the industry.
• The company's operational mining capacity exceeded 423 megawatts, contributing approximately 36% of its production this quarter.

• The energy portfolio expansion and operational efficiency are driven by strategic sourcing of sites and dynamic curtailing of data centers for profitability.

• Data Center Development and Approvals:

• Cipher acquired the Colchis site, featuring a 1-gigawatt direct connect agreement with AEP, providing dual interconnection capability.
• The company's pipeline includes additional capacity expected to energize by 2026 and beyond, with significant interest from potential hyperscaler tenants.
• These developments are supported by strong relationships with utilities and a strategic focus on site sourcing, enhancing Cipher's credibility in the HPC sector.

Sentiment Analysis:

Overall Tone: Positive

• CEO: "I'm thrilled... executed a second landmark HPC transaction" and "Cipher has officially arrived as a leader in the HPC revolution." Management highlighted growth from 0 to 544 gross MW contracted this quarter, and CFO noted revenue of $72M, up 65% sequentially and adjusted earnings of $41M ($0.10) up ~34% QoQ.

Q&A:

• Question from Paul Golding (Macquarie Research): How will the 300 gross MW for AWS be delivered across sites; pricing across air- vs liquid-cooled, confirmation of ~$1.7M per critical MW, and financing/cash-backstop details?
  Response: Deal terms still being finalized; Phase 1 repurposes 150MW air-cooled (expected PUE ~1.4–1.45), Phase 2 may use liquid cooling to lower PUE; expected CapEx per critical IT MW in line with Barber Lake (~$1.7M); plan to fund majority with debt and the equity piece from cash on hand (bolstered by $1.3B convertible); financing specifics to be announced.

• Question from Gregory Lewis (BTIG, LLC): Update on sourcing power and ERCOT approvals for pipeline (timing for the Ms, Stingray, Colchis, etc.)?
  Response: Colchis targeted for 2028 energization with AEP (advance payment made); Mikeska and McLennan have interim FEAs with Oncor and deposits paid; Milsing pending; timing depends on TDSP and ERCOT approvals but management is confident in the provided timelines.

• Question from Gregory Lewis (BTIG, LLC): How should we think about the optionality for the remaining 56 MW at Barber Lake (leasing to another customer vs operating Cipher's own GPU/cloud)? Timing for locking that up?
  Response: Management is evaluating running its own GPUs versus colocation but prefers long-term, low-risk hyperscaler leases given better risk-adjusted returns; expects strong market demand and is highly confident the 56 MW (and other near-term megawatts) will be taken quickly.

• Question from Andrew Beale (Arete Research Services LLP): What is the expected design and capex per MW for Colchis; and do the Google/AWS leases help approvals for the 3Ms and other interconnection processes?
  Response: Preliminary budgetary capex expected in line with prior builds (~$9M–$11M per critical IT MW, subject to inflation/supply-chain); prior hyperscaler deals materially increase Cipher's credibility with regulators and TDSPs, easing approval and transmission partner willingness to invest.

• Question from Michael Donovan (Compass Point): What supply-chain constraints remain for long-lead items and procurement status for Barber Lake? Also, are customers discussing linking sites into larger campuses and plans outside Texas?
  Response: Substation work is the primary gating item and backup gens are next in procurement priority; >85% of Barber Lake long-lead equipment secured; management sees some customer interest in geographic redundancy but our sites aren't necessarily clustered closely enough to be merged; Cipher is also evaluating opportunities outside Texas, notably in PJM.

• Question from Michael Colonnese (H.C. Wainwright & Co): How will revenues from the two HPC agreements layer into 2026 and beyond (timing of rent commencement and phased deliveries)?
  Response: Fluidstack/Google (Barber Lake): full delivery by Sept 30, 2026 with rent starting Oct 2026; AWS (Black Pearl): phased deliveries begin in July/August 2026 with rent starting in August 2026 and additional phases closer to year-end 2026.

• Question from Joseph Vafi (Canaccord Genuity): Update on the behind-the-meter PPA at Odessa and how that site may evolve given HPC demand?
  Response: Odessa's behind-the-meter PPA (207 MW) provides very low fixed power costs through July 2027; mining economics are highly attractive there today, so no rush to convert to HPC despite inbound interest; any conversion would require coordination with Vistra and would be evaluated against economics.

• Question from Joseph Vafi (Canaccord Genuity): Which site is the AWS lease located at?
  Response: The AWS lease is at the Black Pearl site.

• Question from John Todaro (Needham & Company): Confidence in delivering Black Pearl to AWS on the aggressive timeline given the conversion?
  Response: High confidence—Black Pearl's Phase 1 (150 MW) was built to a high standard and is largely reusable for conversion, enabling the aggressive delivery timeline for Phase 1; Phase 2 timelines align with procurement and design finalization.

• Question from John Todaro (Needham & Company): When procuring sites like Colchis who are you competing with—hyperscalers building own sites or other miners/local owners?
  Response: Competition largely involves local land/interconnection originators (wildcatters) rather than direct hyperscaler-built sites; Cipher's local sourcing expertise plus hyperscaler credibility provides a unique edge over other bidders.

Contradiction Point 1

Power Distribution and Pricing Structure

It involves the structure of the deal with AWS, which could impact operational costs and financial planning.

How is the AWS deal structured for the 300 MW capacity in terms of power distribution and pricing? - Paul Golding (Macquarie Research)

2025Q3: The AWS deal includes 300 megawatts, with one phase involving a recutting of an existing air-cooled 150 megawatt site. PUE is expected to be similar to Barber Lake, around 1.4 to 1.45. Cost per critical IT megawatt is anticipated to be in line with previous transactions. - Rodney Page(CEO & Director)

What are the potential cost differences between a hybrid model for Black Pearl Phase 2 and pure mining or HPC sites? - Justin Pan (Clear Street)

2025Q2: Black Pearl Phase 2 is a Tier 1 design with modularity, ready to adapt quickly. It will cost about $1.5 million per megawatt, with potential for Tier 3 redundancy costs if required, possibly another $8 million. - Rodney Tyler Page (CEO & Director)

Contradiction Point 2

Fiber and Substation Infrastructure

It involves the timeline and progress of infrastructure development, which affects operational readiness and potential revenue streams.

Can you provide details on Colchis's design and the estimated CapEx per megawatt? - Andrew Beale (Arete Research Services LLP)

2025Q3: Fiber, substation, and land are the immediate infrastructure priorities. Fiber and substation procurement is already underway. - Rodney Page(CEO & Director)

How long would it take to convert hydro Bitcoin mining to AI HPC compute in Black Pearl Phase 2? How does that compare to starting from scratch today? - Bill Papanastasiou (Keefe, Bruyette, & Woods, Inc., Research Division)

2025Q2: Black Pearl Phase 2 is being built as a flexible, modular data center that can quickly adapt to HPC requirements. The timing for conversion will depend on tenant interest and how construction aligns. - Rodney Tyler Page (CEO & Director)

Contradiction Point 3

HPC Tenant Interest and Leasing Strategies

This contradiction suggests differing views on the interest and leasing strategies for HPC tenants, which could impact revenue forecasts and market positioning.

How should we assess the 56 megawatts at Barber Lake for AI cloud services or colocation? - Gregory Lewis (BTIG, LLC, Research Division)

2025Q3: The 56 megawatts at Barber Lake is a hotly sought asset. We are considering leasing or operating our own GPUs for compute sales, with long-term offtake deals attractive. - Rodney Page(CEO & Director)

How are you managing long-lead item purchases for HPC tenants, and how does this relate to tenant due diligence? - Paul Golding (Macquarie)

2025Q1: The strategic positioning of Barber Lake enables us to benefit from the ongoing transition in the market dynamics to HPC. It's a long-term opportunity for us. - Tyler Page(CEO)

Contradiction Point 4

Power Sourcing for HPC and Bitcoin Mining

It involves the strategic use of power sourcing for both high-performance computing (HPC) and bitcoin mining, which are key revenue streams for the company.

How is the AWS deal structured in terms of power distribution and pricing for the 300 megawatt capacity? - Paul Golding (Macquarie Research)

2025Q3: The AWS deal includes 300 megawatts, with one phase involving a recutting of an existing air-cooled 150 megawatt site. PUE is expected to be similar to Barber Lake, around 1.4 to 1.45. Cost per critical IT megawatt is anticipated to be in line with previous transactions. - Rodney Page(CEO & Director)

Can you detail SoftBank exclusivity and current hyperscaler interest? How much time remains on the $0.027 fixed power contract at Odessa, and what are expected future power rates? - John Todaro (Needham)

2024Q4: The fixed power contract expires in July 2027. We have the ability to purchase power from the grid when curtailment occurs profitably. We are in discussions with Luminant for a potential contract extension, which might be front-of-the-meter pricing. - Rodney Page