PureCycle (PCT) Surges 12.3% on Expansion Hype and Capital Raise—Is This the Catalyst for a Breakout?

Summary
• PureCycle’s stock rockets 12.3% intraday to $13.87, surging from a $13.1 low to a $14.225 high.
• The company announces a $300M capital raise and expansion plans in Thailand, Belgium, and the U.S.
• Q2 2025 production hits 3.4M lbs of PureFive™ resin, with partnerships advancing in packaging and textiles.
• A volatile day sees PCT trading above its 52-week low of $4.5 but remains 20% below its 52-week high of $17.37. The sharp rebound follows a Q2 loss of $0.35/share and revenue of $1.7M, raising questions about whether the rally is a short-term pop or a turning point.

Capital Raise and Expansion Fuel Optimism
PureCycle’s 12.3% intraday surge is directly tied to its $300 million capital raise in June 2025, which funds new facilities in Thailand, Belgium, and the U.S. The company’s CEO highlighted these projects as pivotal to achieving 1 billion pounds of polypropylene recycling capacity by 2030. Additionally, commercial progress with Procter & Gamble (P&G) and Brückner Maschinenbau GmbH—key partners for PureFive™ resin trials—has bolstered investor confidence. The Ironton Facility’s operational upgrades, including a $4M annual cost cut, further validate the company’s execution capabilities, driving the stock’s sharp rebound.

Waste Management Sector Lags as PCT Defies Trends
Options Playbook: Leveraging Volatility in a High-Beta Name
• RSI: 11.21 (oversold)
• MACD: -0.24 (bearish), Signal Line: 0.21, Histogram: -0.45
• Bollinger Bands: Upper $17.61, Middle $14.76, Lower $11.90
• 200D MA: $10.52 (well below current price)
• Support/Resistance: 30D $13.63–$13.72, 200D $9.65–$9.88

PureCycle’s technicals suggest a short-term bounce from oversold RSI levels, but the bearish MACD and wide Bollinger Bands indicate lingering volatility. The stock is trading near its 30D support at $13.63, with the 200D MA acting as a distant floor. A break above $14.225 (intraday high) could trigger a test of the $17.61 upper band, while a retest of $13.1 (intraday low) would signal renewed bearishness.

Top Options Picks:
• PCT20250815C13 (Call, $13 strike, 8/15 expiry):
- IV: 94.01% (high)
- Leverage Ratio: 11.91%
- Delta: 0.67 (moderate)
- Theta: -0.0857 (high time decay)
- Gamma: 0.1888 (moderate sensitivity)
- Turnover: 23,215 (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% Upside ($14.56): $1.56/share. This call offers aggressive leverage for a modest price move, with high IV and liquidity to capitalize on near-term momentum.
• PCT20250815C14.5 (Call, $14.5 strike, 8/15 expiry):
- IV: 93.94% (high)
- Leverage Ratio: 30.44%
- Delta: 0.37 (moderate)
- Theta: -0.0694 (high time decay)
- Gamma: 0.1982 (moderate sensitivity)
- Turnover: 826 (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% Upside ($14.56): $0.06/share. This high-leverage call is ideal for a breakout above $14.5, with strong gamma to benefit from sharp price swings.

Action: Aggressive bulls may consider PCT20250815C13 into a bounce above $14.225, while PCT20250815C14.5 offers a high-risk, high-reward play if the stock breaks $14.5.

Backtest PureCycle Stock Performance
The performance of the PCT after a 12% intraday increase was generally positive, with win rates and returns indicating favorable short-to-medium-term gains. The 3-Day win rate was 50.72%, the 10-Day win rate was 52.35%, and the 30-Day win rate was 53.25%, suggesting that the positive momentum persisted over various time frames. The maximum return during the backtest period was 10.57%, which occurred on day 59, further highlighting the potential for substantial gains following a strong intraday surge.

PCT’s Volatility Demands Precision—Act on Key Levels
PureCycle’s 12.3% intraday surge reflects optimism around its capital raise and expansion plans, but technicals suggest caution. The stock’s oversold RSI and bearish MACD indicate a potential short-term rebound, but a break above $14.225 could reignite bullish momentum. Conversely, a retest of $13.1 would signal renewed weakness. Investors should monitor the 200D MA at $10.52 as a critical floor. Meanwhile, the sector leader Waste Management (WM) is up 0.35%, underscoring PCT’s divergence. Act now: Buy PCT20250815C13 if $14.225 holds, or short PCT20250815P14 if $13.87 breaks. Watch for $14.5 as the next pivotal level.