Pump.fun/USDC Market Overview

Summary
• Pump.fun/USDC opened at $0.004507 and closed at $0.004397 after 24 hours.
• Price action displayed a bearish bias with a 2.33% decline and a low of $0.004142.
• Turnover was strong at $948.45 million, driven by high-volume periods in the early morning.
• RSI and MACD signaled oversold territory, suggesting potential for a rebound.
• Price appears to consolidate near key 15-minute Fibonacci support levels.

Pump.fun/USDC (PUMPUSDC) opened at $0.004507 on 2025-11-11 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.004397 the following day. The 24-hour range was $0.004572 (high) to $0.004142 (low). Total traded volume reached 610,571,407 USDC, with notional turnover at $948.45 million. The price trend showed bearish continuation with notable volatility from 20:45 ET to 06:00 ET.

Structure & Formations

Price action revealed a series of bearish candlestick formations, including long lower wicks and bearish engulfing patterns after 19:00 ET. Key 15-minute support levels formed at $0.004397 and $0.004374, which held during morning consolidation. A potential reversal pattern emerged around 05:30 ET with a bullish harami, indicating temporary pause in the downtrend.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA was bearish, closing below the 50-period MA, confirming downward momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA was at $0.004335, below the 200-period MA at $0.004480, signaling a long-term bearish bias. Price tested the 50-day MA multiple times but failed to hold above it, reinforcing a weak outlook.

MACD & RSI

MACD lines showed negative divergence, with bearish crossovers after 19:00 ET and continued bearish momentum into the early morning. RSI-14 hit oversold territory (below 30) at 06:00 ET and remained there for several hours, suggesting potential for a bounce. However, the RSI failed to form a strong base above 40, hinting at limited bullish conviction.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly from 19:00 to 22:00 ET, with price moving outside the lower Bollinger band. After 04:00 ET, volatility contracted again, and price remained within the bands. Current price action sits near the lower band at $0.004197–$0.004207, indicating possible short-term support.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked after 19:00 ET and again between 23:00 and 01:00 ET, aligning with significant price declines. Notional turnover exceeded $100 million during these periods. However, price did not close above the high of the preceding candle in these sessions, indicating bearish confirmation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Recent 15-minute swings showed price consolidating near the 61.8% retracement level of the 19:00–23:00 ET move at $0.004230. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the last major downleg is at $0.004300. A break of this level could trigger further bearish momentum.

Backtest Hypothesis
The backtest strategy under development involves identifying RSI-14 oversold conditions and holding for five days. Initial data from Pump.fun/USDC shows RSI hit oversold levels multiple times, particularly during the 05:00–08:00 ET window. While price did not recover strongly from these points, a refinement of the strategy—perhaps using a moving average crossover for confirmation—may improve success. Further testing on a broader set of tickers is advised.