Pump.fun/USDC Market Overview

• Price action on PUMPUSDC showed a bearish bias after an initial breakout and sharp decline.
• Volatility increased with price falling nearly 20% from the 12-hour high to the 24-hour low.
• RSI and MACD signaled oversold conditions late in the 24-hour cycle, hinting at potential short-term stabilization.
• Volume spiked during key declines, indicating aggressive selling pressure.
• Bollinger Bands contracted mid-day before price broke lower, confirming a breakout to the downside.

At 12:00 ET – 1, PUMPUSDC opened at 0.006495 and traded as high as 0.006686 before closing at 0.005851 at 12:00 ET today. The price hit a 24-hour low of 0.005791, reflecting a sharp bearish bias. Total volume for the period was 460,037,720 USDC, with a notional turnover of approximately $2.69 million.

The price pattern over the 24-hour period displayed a clear breakdown from a prior range, with several long bearish candlesticks appearing in the afternoon. The first major breakdown came around 19:00 ET, where a large bearish candle followed a bullish reversal, forming an engulfing pattern that marked the beginning of a sustained downtrend. This was followed by a series of declining lows, with a final sharp drop occurring between 03:15 ET and 03:30 ET, where price fell below the 0.006000 level. The move created a key support zone between 0.005850 and 0.005900, where price found a brief respite before closing the session.

MACD turned negative during the afternoon and remained so through the close, indicating fading bullish momentum. RSI reached oversold territory by 06:00 ET and stayed there until the close, suggesting short-term buyers may step in. Bollinger Bands, which had been compressed between 20:00 ET and 02:00 ET, expanded as price broke lower. Price remained near the lower band for most of the session, reinforcing the bearish bias. On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed below the 50-period MA early in the session, confirming a near-term bearish bias.

Volume spiked during key price declines, particularly between 19:00 ET and 03:30 ET, aligning with the breakdown and subsequent bearish continuation. Turnover spiked during these periods as well, indicating strong selling pressure. However, there was some divergence between price and volume in the final hours of the session, where volume declined while price continued to fall, suggesting exhaustion in the short term. A potential bounce from the 0.005850–0.005900 support zone may be possible, but a break below this level would signal a deeper test of the 0.005750 zone.

Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the key swing high at 0.006686 and the low at 0.005791 show 38.2% at 0.006252 and 61.8% at 0.005948. Price has tested the 61.8% level twice in the last 24 hours but failed to hold it. On the 15-minute chart, a similar Fibonacci structure from the 16:45 ET high at 0.006686 to the 22:15 ET low at 0.006350 shows critical levels at 0.006546 (38.2%) and 0.006413 (61.8%). Price has failed to reclaim the 38.2% level, reinforcing the bearish structure.

Backtest Hypothesis
The described backtesting strategy utilizes a combination of MACD and RSI to identify oversold conditions during a downtrend, looking to enter long positions at key Fibonacci retracement levels. Given the current setup on PUMPUSDC, the market appears to be in a bearish channel, with price hovering near the 61.8% retracement level. A potential backtest could look for a bullish reversal candle confirming a rebound from this level, with RSI above 30 and MACD showing a positive crossover. If this structure is confirmed, a short-term bullish bias may be in place, but the risk remains of a break below key support, which could accelerate the downtrend.