Pump.fun/USDC Market Overview

• PUMPUSDC traded in a descending range, closing below its 24-hour high with bearish momentum.
• RSI and MACD signaled weakening bullish momentum, with volume declining after an initial spike.
• Bollinger Bands constricted mid-day, followed by a late-day expansion and a sharp price rebound.
• Fibonacci levels and key support were tested, with potential for near-term consolidation.
• Notional turnover surged in the early hours, diverging from the later price decline.

At 12:00 ET – 1, PUMPUSDC opened at $0.007166, surged to a high of $0.007428, and closed at $0.007397 by 12:00 ET. The 24-hour notional volume totaled $406.6 million, with turnover of ~$294.3 million. Price action displayed a bearish bias, punctuated by a sharp late-day rally.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart revealed a key support at $0.007042, where price found a floor mid-day. A bearish engulfing pattern was seen near the 24-hour high ($0.007428), suggesting potential short-term capitulation. A doji at $0.007051 reflected indecision before the late-day rebound. Resistance levels at $0.007205 and $0.007259 were repeatedly tested and failed to hold.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA was above the 50SMA in the morning, indicating short-term bullish bias, but both lines began to flatten as bearish momentum took over. On the daily timeframe, the 50DMA crossed above the 200DMA, a potential “golden cross,” though this may not align with the recent intraday bearish action.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line mid-day, confirming a shift in momentum toward bearish territory. RSI dropped below 40 by 8:30 PM ET, signaling oversold conditions, though price failed to follow through on a meaningful bounce until the final hours.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility contracted sharply between 4:00 AM and 3:00 PM ET, with price clustering near the middle band. This was followed by a late-day expansion and a move toward the upper band, indicating a potential short-term reversal.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at the start of the trading period but gradually declined, while turnover remained elevated during the late-day rally. Divergence between volume and price was evident during the 4–6 AM ET window, where volume waned despite continued price movement.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key 15-minute retracement levels (38.2% at $0.007138, 61.8% at $0.007197) acted as dynamic support during the 5–7 PM ET range. On the daily chart, the 61.8% level of the recent swing is at $0.00725, which may serve as a short-term resistance.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy outlined involves entering a long position when RSI crosses above 40 and the 20SMA crosses above the 50SMA on the 15-minute chart, with a stop-loss placed at the previous 15-minute low. This aligns with the observed late-day rally and potential for a continuation. A short position could be considered when the 20SMA crosses below the 50SMA and RSI drops below 40. These signals appear consistent with the 24-hour price behavior, suggesting a viable short-term trading approach.