Pump.fun Price Forecast: PUMP Retreats Despite DEX Volume, Investor Demand Surge

Pump.fun's (PUMP) price fell in early 2026 after a sustained bullish run, marking a reversal from the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The Solana-based meme coin had seen eight consecutive days of gains before encountering this critical resistance level. The pullback signals potential volatility in the short term as PUMP faces overhead pressure.

Despite the price dip, Pump.fun recorded a record high in daily Decentralized Exchange (DEX) volume. DeFiLlama data showed that the platform hit $2.036 billion in trading activity, demonstrating renewed interest in Solana-based meme coins. This surge in DEX volume points to increased user activity and demand, despite the bearish price action.

Mid-sized wallet holders played a key role in the recent PUMP rally. On-chain data from Santiment indicated that investors holding between 10 million and 100 million PUMP tokens increased their holdings from 1.83% on December 21 to 1.88% by early January 2026. This shift in exposure correlates directly with the PUMP price movement, suggesting that mid-sized investors were instrumental in fueling the recent price surge.

Why Did PUMP Retreat Despite Increased Demand?

Pump.fun's price dipped over 7% by early January 2026 as it hit resistance at the 50-day EMA. This technical level acts as a dynamic resistance, with the price unable to push through despite rising DEX volume and investor participation. The pullback suggests a temporary retest of the market's ability to sustain the upward trend.

The total value locked (TVL) on Pump.fun stood at $234.61 million, a 30-day high. This figure reflects a 30-day high in TVL and suggests that the Solana meme coin market remains attractive to investors, despite the recent price correction. The platform's TVL and revenue data underline the strong underlying demand in the sector.

Large wallet holders have remained relatively stable, with over 91% of PUMP tokens held by investors with more than 1 billion tokens. This concentration of supply has not changed significantly, indicating that the recent price action is driven more by mid-sized investors than large whale movements according to analysis.

How Do Technical Indicators Influence the PUMP Price Outlook?

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for PUMP is currently at 55, reflecting a neutral stance as buying pressure declines. The Supertrend indicator remains bullish, holding onto its buy signal from late December 2025. However, the MACD indicator is showing a slowdown in bullish momentum, with green histogram bars decreasing in size.

Pump.fun's price chart shows that the 50-day EMA at $0.002640 is a key level to watch. A break above this level could allow PUMP to test the R1 Pivot Point at $0.002983, near the $0.003000 psychological mark. This target is seen as a critical benchmark for a potential recovery.

The broken trendline near $0.002000 remains a potential support level if the current pullback extends further. Investors are closely monitoring whether PUMP can reclaim this level or if the bearish momentum will continue to dominate in the short term.

What Are Analysts Watching for the PUMP Price Recovery?

Analysts are focusing on several key metrics to gauge the likelihood of a PUMP price recovery. The DEX volume remains a primary indicator, as it reflects active market participation. A continuation of the current record volume could suggest sustained demand, potentially supporting a price rebound.

Mid-sized wallet activity is also under close scrutiny. If these investors continue to increase their exposure, it could reinforce the bullish narrative and provide additional support for the PUMP price. However, if the trend reverses and mid-sized investors begin to reduce their holdings, it could signal a shift in market sentiment.

Technical indicators such as the RSI and MACD will continue to be monitored for signs of renewed bullish momentum. A sustained move above the 50-day EMA and a breakout of the R1 Pivot Point would signal a resumption of the upward trend. Until then, the market remains in a critical phase of consolidation.