Puma Biotechnology's Q4 2024: Navigating Contradictions in NERLYNX Sales, Enhertu Data, and Biomarker Strategy

These are the key contradictions discussed in Puma Biotechnology's latest 2024Q4 earnings call, specifically including: NERLYNX sales and inventory impact, Enhertu data presentation expectations, and biomarker strategy:



Financial Performance and Revenue Trends:
- Puma Biotechnology reported total revenue of $59.1 million for Q4 2024, with product revenue net at $54.4 million and royalty revenue at $4.7 million.
- Product revenue net declined sequentially from $56.1 million in Q3 2024, and royalty revenue dropped from $24.4 million in Q3 2024.
- The decline was primarily due to increased inventory at specialty pharmacies and distributors ($3.7 million) and decreased product supply revenue to global partners.

NERLYNX Sales Dynamics:
- Puma reported 2,964 bottles of NERLYNX sold in Q4 2024, an increase from 2,723 bottles in Q3 2024.
- New prescriptions (NRx) were down approximately 7% compared to Q3 2024, while total prescriptions increased by approximately 4%.
- Inventory increased by about 205 bottles in Q4 2024, contributing to sales trends.

Clinical and Product Pipeline Development:
- Puma is conducting three clinical trials: a Phase I trial with Enhertu, Phase II trials for alisertib in breast cancer and lung cancer.
- Interim data for the Phase I trial with Enhertu is expected in the first half of 2025, while interim data for alisertib trials is anticipated later in 2025.
- These trials aim to explore new combinations and expand Puma's therapeutic reach in breast cancer and lung cancer.

Cost Control and Financial Projections:
- Puma anticipates net income for fiscal year 2025 to be between $23 million and $28 million, with Q1 2025 net income expected between $2 million and breakeven.
- The company anticipates controlling expenses, with SG&A expenses expected to decrease by 5% to 10% and R&D expenses to increase by 10% to 15% year-over-year.
- These projections are based on focused financial resource management and expense reductions.