PulteGroup Rises 3.24% as Technicals Signal Bullish Reversal Near $95 Support

PulteGroup (PHM) advanced 3.24% on 2025-06-04, marking a second consecutive gain and bringing the two-day return to 4.43%. This analysis examines the stock's technical positioning following this rebound.
Candlestick Theory
Recent price action shows a bullish reversal pattern forming near the 2025-06-02 low of $95.20, which serves as immediate support. The last two sessions formed consecutive white candles with higher highs and higher lows, suggesting buying momentum. Resistance emerges near $103.00, aligning with the 2025-05-28 high of $100.31 and the 2025-05-29 peak of $98.89. A confirmed breakout above this zone could signal continued upside.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day moving average (MA) at $104.00, 100-day MA at $107.50, and 200-day MA at $112.00 collectively indicate a bearish long-term structure as the current price ($101.87) trades below all three. However, the recent bounce from the $95.20 low has pushed prices above the 20-day MA ($99.30), hinting at near-term stabilization. Golden cross confirmation would require the 50-day MA to cross above the 200-day MA, which remains absent.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD exhibits a bullish crossover with the signal line converging upward from negative territory, suggesting strengthening momentum. KDJ shows the %K line (65) crossing above %D (60) in neutral territory, supporting near-term upside potential. Neither indicator flags overbought conditions yet (KDJ J-value: 75), though traders should monitor for divergence if prices accelerate sharply without corresponding momentum confirmation.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands contracted notably in late May during the $95.20 consolidation, signaling reduced volatility. Recent expansion accompanied the price surge above the 20-day SMA (mid-band), now testing the lower-mid band region. Upper band resistance resides near $106.50, while the lower band support holds at $94.00. A sustained move above the mid-band ($99.30) supports continuation potential.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume surged 25% during the 2025-06-04 rally (2.06M shares vs. 1.65M prior), validating bullish conviction. Notable accumulation occurred during the April 2024 advance (3.68M shares on 2024-04-22) and the May 2025 decline (3.15M shares on 2025-05-30), establishing these as pivotal reference zones. Recent volume supports the reversal but remains below key swing highs, warranting caution until participation expands further.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (54) recently rebounded from oversold territory (<30 on 2025-05-23), now approaching neutral. Current readings suggest room for additional upside before overbought concerns emerge. Divergence occurred in April 2025 as prices made higher highs while RSI peaked lower, forewarning the subsequent correction. The RSI must sustain above 50 to bolster recovery prospects.
Fibonacci Retracement
Drawing from the 2025-04-10 swing high ($149.47) to the 2025-06-02 trough ($95.20), key retracement levels emerge: 23.6% ($108.00), 38.2% ($114.30), and 50% ($122.35). The current rally faces immediate Fibonacci resistance at $108.00 (23.6%), closely aligned with the 100-day MA. A decisive close above this confluence would signal strength. The 2025-05-28 high ($100.31) offers nearby psychological resistance.
Confluence and Divergence
Converging signals reinforce the near-term bullish case: MACD/KDJ crossovers align with volume-supported price gains and Bollinger Band expansion. RSI and Fibonacci levels agree on $108.00 as critical resistance. Divergence appears absent currently, though traders should monitor whether momentum oscillators sustain their trajectory if prices near $108.00 resistance. The moving average structure remains bearish longer-term, suggesting rallies into the $103.00–$108.00 resistance band could encounter profit-taking pressure. Overall technicals favor continued near-term recovery with upside likely capped near $108.00 without fundamental catalysts.