PulteGroup (PHM) Surges 7.34% as Bullish Technical Patterns Fuel Two-Day 12.71% Rally

PulteGroup (PHM) has surged 7.34% in the latest session, extending its two-day rally to a cumulative 12.71% gain. This sharp upward momentum suggests a short-term bullish bias, supported by a sequence of higher highs and higher lows in the recent candlestick pattern. Key support levels emerge at $117.00 (a multi-occurrence trough) and $112.00 (a prior consolidation zone), while resistance is tentatively marked near $132.20 (the current close). The formation of a "Bullish Engulfing" pattern on the most recent session, characterized by a long-bodied green candle following a red candle, may indicate a potential continuation of the uptrend.

Moving Average Theory

The 50-day moving average is beginning to approach a crossover above the 200-day line, a potential "Golden Cross" signal that historically suggests a shift in trend. However, the 200-day remains above the 50-day, indicating a longer-term bearish bias. The 100-day MA is currently acting as dynamic support, with the price testing this level on multiple occasions in late December. If the 50-day MA crosses above the 200-day, it could validate a medium-term bullish trend, though confirmation is needed over the next 5–7 trading days.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD histogram remains positive and expanding, with the MACD line above the signal line, reinforcing bullish momentum. The KDJ oscillator, however, shows the stock entering overbought territory (K-line at 85, D-line at 80), suggesting a potential near-term pullback. A bearish crossover in the KDJ (K falling below D) could signal a short-term reversal, though this must be weighed against the strong RSI reading. Divergence between the KDJ and price action—such as a new high in price without a corresponding new high in KDJ—would heighten caution.

Bollinger Bands

Price is currently near the upper Bollinger Band, with a recent contraction in band width observed in early January. This "Bollinger Squeeze" may precede a breakout or breakdown. The current position near the upper band, coupled with elevated volatility (as evidenced by the 7.34% one-day move), suggests the trend could extend higher. However, a breakdown below the lower band would likely indicate a shift in volatility and momentum.

Volume-Price Relationship

Trading volume has surged alongside the recent price action, particularly on the two-day 12.71% rally. This volume expansion validates the strength of the bullish move. However, a divergence—where volume begins to decline while price continues to rise—could signal weakening momentum. The high volume on the most recent session (4.09 million shares) also suggests strong conviction among buyers, though sustainability will depend on follow-through.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI is currently in overbought territory (>70), aligning with the KDJ's overbought signal. While this typically warns of a potential pullback, the RSI has not yet shown a bearish divergence (price new highs without RSI confirmation). A decline below 60 would suggest caution, and a drop below 50 would indicate a shift in momentum. However, in strong trends, overbought conditions can persist for extended periods, so context is critical.

Fibonacci Retracement

Key Fibonacci levels from the recent high ($132.20) to the December 2025 low ($102.72) include 61.8% at $117.50 and 78.6% at $107.00. The current price is near the 61.8% level, which could act as a pivot zone. A break above $132.20 would target the 38.2% retracement at $121.80 on a deeper pullback, while a failure to hold above the 61.8% level could see a test of the 78.6% support.

Confluence of indicators suggests a high probability of continued bullish momentum in the short term, particularly if the 50-day MA crosses above the 200-day and the RSI remains above 60. Divergences in the KDJ or RSI, or a breakdown below the 61.8% Fibonacci level, would increase the likelihood of a correction. Traders should monitor the 50-day MA as dynamic support and the 200-day MA as a potential trigger for trend validation.