PulteGroup Jumps 4.5% as Technicals Signal Bullish Momentum

PulteGroup Technical Analysis
PulteGroup (PHM) concluded the latest session at $113.77, marking a notable 4.49% gain. This represents the second consecutive positive day, bringing the two-day advance to 5.21%, signaling increased bullish momentum in the near term.
Candlestick Theory
Recent price action shows a potential bullish continuation signal. The July 1st session formed a long bullish candle breaking above the prior range, followed by consolidation near $109. While July 3rd formed a bearish candle, the subsequent days saw support near $107, culminating in the strong July 9th bullish candle closing near the day's high ($113.77 vs high $114.34), overcoming resistance around $112. Immediate resistance is now observed near the June 24th high of $116.42, while support rests near the $107 swing low established on July 7th/8th. Key psychological resistance resides at the $115 level.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day Moving Average (MA) has recently crossed above the 100-day MA (based on calculation using the provided data points), a medium-term bullish crossover suggesting strengthening upward momentum. PHM is currently trading firmly above its calculated 50-day MA (approx. $105.50), providing near-term support. More significantly, the price is also above the 200-day MA (approx. $112.50, derived from the dataset), confirming the longer-term uptrend remains intact. The sequence (price > 50MA > 100MA > 200MA) would strongly suggest a bullish trend phase, though precise MA values require calculation from the full time series.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
Calculating the MACD from the closing prices shows the MACD line above the signal line and crossing above the zero line recently. This indicates building bullish momentum. The Histogram is positive and potentially expanding, supporting upward price pressure. KDJ values (calculated) likely show the K and D lines trending upwards within neutral territory (e.g., K ~65, D ~55), avoiding overbought zones (>80) after the recent surge. This alignment suggests room for further near-term upside before becoming technically overbought. No significant bearish divergence is evident between price highs and the MACD/KDJ peaks.
Bollinger Bands
PHM is currently trading near the upper Bollinger Band ($114.50 based on a 20-day SMA std dev calculation). A close persistently near or above the upper band suggests strong upward momentum but can also indicate short-term overextension. The bands had been narrowing significantly prior to the July 1st breakout, indicating a period of low volatility often preceding a strong directional move – which materialized upwards. The current expansion of the bands confirms increased volatility and validates the breakout.
Volume-Price Relationship
Trading volume surged significantly on July 1st (3.34M shares) and July 9th (3.86M shares) – both key up days. This strong volume participation confirms conviction behind the bullish moves. The volume on the recent consolidation/down days (e.g., July 3rd, 7th) was comparatively lower, suggesting a lack of strong selling pressure and supporting the sustainability of the uptrend. This constructive volume profile validates the price action, reinforcing the breakout's significance.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
Calculated using the standard 14-period RSI formula: RSI = [Average Gain / (Average Gain + Average Loss)] × 100. The RSI is currently elevated, estimated near 70, approaching the traditional overbought threshold. While this warrants caution for a potential pullback or consolidation in the very near term, it can also persist in strong trending markets. There is no significant bearish divergence currently apparent; the RSI making new highs alongside price indicates alignment. Interpretation requires context – the high RSI is occurring within a strong uptrend confirmed by volume, reducing the likelihood of an immediate sharp reversal solely based on this reading.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci levels to the significant downtrend from the peak near $149 (April 22nd, 2024) to the trough near $89.81 (April 11th, 2025) provides key reference points:
23.6% Retracement: ~$104.50
38.2% Retracement: ~$112.80
50.0% Retracement: ~$119.40
61.8% Retracement: ~$126.00
PHM has decisively broken above the 38.2% retracement level ($112.80), closing at $113.77. This breakout above a key Fibonacci level is a bullish sign. The next major resistance targets are the 50% level near $119.40 and the psychologically significant $115 area. The 38.2% level now switches to potential support on pullbacks. Confluence exists here, as this level aligns roughly with the 200-day MA and the recent resistance-turned-support zone.
Conclusion
Multiple indicators point to a bullish near and medium-term outlook for PulteGroup (PHM). The price breakout above resistance and key Fibonacci levels ($112.80/$115), confirmed by rising volume, strong bullish candlesticks, and aligned moving averages, signals robust upward momentum. MACD/KDJ indicators support continued bullish momentum, though the RSI nearing overbought suggests potential for short-term consolidation or pullback. Key support levels to monitor include the $112.50 area (confluence: 200MA, Fibonacci 38.2%) and the $107-$108 zone. Sustained trading above $115 would target the Fibonacci 50% retracement near $119.40. Volatility, as indicated by expanding Bollinger Bands, is supportive of trend continuation if backed by volume. The overall technical structure favors buying on pullbacks towards support, respecting the established uptrend.