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PulteGroup (PHM) saw its trading volume surge by 89.21% on October 7, 2025, with $360 million exchanged in the session. The stock ranked 306th in dollar volume among U.S. equities but closed with a 4.34% decline, signaling heightened market activity without a corresponding price rebound.
Recent developments highlight the company’s exposure to macroeconomic pressures. A shift in Federal Reserve policy expectations has intensified sector-wide volatility, with homebuilders facing dual headwinds from rising mortgage rates and slowing demand. Analysts note that PulteGroup’s reliance on discretionary consumer spending makes it particularly sensitive to interest rate fluctuations, which could prolong the bearish trend.
Market structure data reveals a pattern of heavy institutional selling in the preceding week. Short-term traders appear to have capitalized on the elevated volume to execute exit strategies, exacerbating downward momentum. Technical indicators suggest a breakdown below key support levels, raising the likelihood of further consolidation in the near term.
The back-test framework outlined here involves a daily-rebalanced portfolio that purchases the 500 highest-volume U.S. stocks each trading day and exits the following day. Before implementation, two parameters require clarification: 1) whether the universe includes only NYSE, NASDAQ, and AMEX-listed stocks; and 2) if the 500-stock basket should be equally weighted or adjusted by trading volume. Confirmation of these details will enable the construction of a historical performance model.

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