Pulse Seismic (TSE:PSD) shareholders have seen a 48% CAGR over the last five years, with a 51% increase in the last quarter. The company became profitable during this period, with EPS growth averaging 50% per year. However, the share price has grown at a lower rate, with a P/E ratio of 9.05. The TSR incorporates the value of dividends and spin-offs, providing a more complete picture of investment returns.
ASML Holding NV (TSE:ASML) stands at the forefront of the global semiconductor industry, poised to capitalize on the transformative era driven by artificial intelligence (AI) and advanced computing. With a projected revenue of €44 billion to €60 billion by 2030 and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8%–14%, ASML is well-positioned to dominate the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography market [1].
At the heart of ASML's growth is its leadership in EUV lithography, enabling the production of chips with features as small as 2 nanometers. The company's EUV systems, particularly the NXE:3800E and the upcoming EXE:5200B High NA (Numerical Aperture) machines, are indispensable for leading-edge logic and DRAM production. These systems allow chipmakers to transition from costly multi-patterning designs to single-patterning EUV processes, slashing production complexity and costs [1].
The demand for EUV tools is accelerating, driven by AI's insatiable appetite for computational power. ASML's CEO, Christophe Fouquet, has emphasized that AI will be a "megatrend" reshaping global productivity. The semiconductor industry's 9% annual growth forecast through 2030 underscores the significance of AI in driving demand for advanced chips [1].
ASML's 2030 revenue guidance reflects a disciplined approach to scaling its business. The company's gross margin of 56%–60% by 2030 further cements its profitability. Meanwhile, ASML's capital allocation strategy—returning cash to shareholders via dividends and buybacks—adds a layer of investor appeal. In 2024 alone, the firm returned €4.5 billion to shareholders, a figure expected to rise as free cash flow grows [1].
While there are risks, such as the high cost and technical complexity of High NA EUV systems, ASML's technological leadership ensures its relevance. The company's holistic lithography portfolio, encompassing DUV (deep ultraviolet) and advanced packaging solutions, provides a buffer. The semiconductor industry's reliance on EUV for cutting-edge nodes means ASML's dominance is non-negotiable [1].
For investors, ASML represents a rare combination of secular growth and durable competitive advantages. Its EUV technology is a critical enabler of AI's next phase, and its 2030 revenue targets are underpinned by structural trends rather than cyclical demand. While short-term risks exist, such as supply chain bottlenecks or regulatory scrutiny, these are dwarfed by the scale of the opportunity [1].
In conclusion, ASML's 8%–14% CAGR growth and AI-driven semiconductor demand make it a strategic long-term bet. The company's EUV lithography dominance, coupled with its ability to navigate technological and economic headwinds, positions it to outperform even in a volatile market. For investors with a 10-year horizon, ASML is not just a stock—it is a stake in the future of computing.
References:
[1] https://www.ainvest.com/news/asml-8-14-cagr-growth-ai-driven-semiconductor-demand-strategic-long-term-bet-ai-infrastructure-revolution-2508-44/
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