Pudgy Penguins (PENGU) Surges 23% as SEC Acknowledges ETF Filing

Pudgy Penguins (PENGU) has demonstrated a strong upward trajectory, breaking above the neckline resistance of a cup and handle pattern on its daily chart. This technical formation is often seen as a bullish continuation signal, suggesting that the token may extend its rally. PENGU's price surged over 23% intraday, reaching $0.0177, its highest level since January 29. This move has resulted in gains of over 125% since last month’s low and approximately 370% above its year-to-date bottom.

The token's impressive performance has propelled it to the top of the rankings among the top 100 crypto assets by market capitalization, now standing as the 89th largest crypto asset. Its market cap has surpassed the $1 billion milestone, indicating a significant return of investor confidence. This surge was driven by the news that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has formally acknowledged the filing for the proposed Canary spot PENGU ETF. The ETF is designed to allocate 80–95% of its assets to PENGU tokens and 5–15% to Pudgy Penguins NFTs, providing exposure to both the token and the broader Pudgy Penguins IP ecosystem. This acknowledgment is generally viewed as bullish, marking the first formal step in the approval process.

Supporting the bullish narrative, large holders, or whales, have increased their PENGU holdings by 21% over the past month, now collectively controlling 2.18 billion tokens. This accumulation during recent price dips suggests growing long-term conviction among sophisticated investors. Additionally, PENGU’s circulating supply on exchanges has declined notably, from 15.6 billion on June 12 to 14.3 billion as of this week. A reduction in exchange reserves is typically interpreted as bullish, as it indicates reduced selling pressure and a higher likelihood of tokens being held in cold storage or long-term wallets.

Further reinforcing the bullish case, data shows that PENGU’s weighted funding rate turned positive on derivatives exchanges for the first time since July 1. A positive funding rate indicates that long positions are paying shorts, typically reflecting a shift toward bullish market sentiment and increased demand for leverage on the long side. The daily chart for PENGU reveals a clear cup-and-handle pattern formation, a historically reliable bullish continuation setup. The token bottomed at $0.0037 in March before rebounding to a local high of $0.0175 in May, creating a rounded base followed by a brief consolidation phase, the “handle” portion of the pattern. The cup-and-handle formation is defined by two distinct price swings, an initial drop and recovery forming the “cup,” followed by a smaller, shallower pullback that shapes the “handle.”

It has since broken above the neckline resistance of this structure, which usually signals the start of a potential breakout. The vertical distance between the cup’s upper resistance and the March low measures approximately 79%. Applying this projected move from the breakout point suggests a potential upside target near $0.0318. This would represent a gain of around 75% from the current price level. However, this bullish forecast would be invalidated if the token drops below the support level at $0.0142. At press time, PENGU remains significantly below its December 2024 high of $0.06845, leaving substantial room for upside if bullish momentum continues.