Pudgy Penguins (PENGU) Faces Resistance at $0.0335 After 75% Surge

Pudgy Penguins (PENGU) has experienced a significant cooling-off period following a sharp upward surge earlier this month, where it rose from below $0.020 to nearly $0.035. The token is currently trading at $0.0316, consolidating within a low-volatility range that has formed a symmetrical triangle pattern on lower timeframes. This setup indicates a market pause after a major impulse move, with traders awaiting confirmation of the next direction.

Despite the bullish macro trend, PENGU has struggled to break through the $0.0335–$0.035 resistance zone. Momentum indicators are showing signs of exhaustion, while on-chain data reveals a lack of fresh inflows, suggesting that profit-taking may be capping short-term gains. With price nearing the apex of the triangle, a breakout or breakdown is likely imminent.

PENGU is currently forming a symmetrical triangle pattern, bounded by support at $0.0305 and resistance at $0.0328. This pattern has been developing on the 4-hour and 30-minute charts, reflecting a tightening price range and declining volatility. The triangle follows a strong bullish impulse earlier in July and typically indicates a continuation or reversal depending on how the market resolves the compression. As price approaches the apex of this formation, traders are closely monitoring for a breakout above resistance or a breakdown below support. A close above $0.0328 could open the door to $0.0355, with further upside possible toward $0.038 if momentum strengthens. On the other hand, a breakdown below $0.0305 could lead to a pullback to $0.0282 or even $0.0246, both of which served as key demand zones in earlier trading.

Technical indicators suggest that market momentum has faded following the earlier rally. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 30-minute chart is hovering around 51.3, a neutral reading that implies neither buyers nor sellers currently have the upper hand. Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour timeframe are narrowing, signaling a classic volatility squeeze. This often precedes a significant price expansion, but the direction remains uncertain. The Directional Movement Index (DMI) further confirms the lack of trend strength. The Average Directional Index (ADX) has dropped below 20, and the +DI and -DI lines continue to crisscross. This lack of directional clarity suggests a waiting game is in play, with bulls and bears each waiting for confirmation before committing.

Price action has struggled to break above the $0.0335 level, which has now become a critical overhead supply zone. PENGU has made multiple attempts to reclaim this area, including sweeping liquidity around $0.034 to $0.035, but has failed to sustain a breakout. This pattern is often seen in distribution phases, where large players offload their positions during rallies. The rejection at these highs reflects a broader market hesitation and implies that a clean break above $0.0335 will be needed for bulls to regain control.

Additional warning signs have emerged on the daily chart. The Money Flow Index (MFI) currently reads 86.08, which is well into overbought territory. Historically, MFI levels above 80 tend to precede pullbacks or at least periods of sideways consolidation. The Parabolic SAR has also flipped bearish, with the indicator now showing dots above the price on the daily chart. This shift confirms a short-term bearish bias and underscores the risk of further downside if momentum doesn’t return soon.

Despite the signs of short-term weakness, the larger trend structure remains bullish. On the 4-hour timeframe, PENGU continues to trade above its exponential moving averages, which are aligned in a bullish configuration. The EMA20 and EMA50 are currently positioned at $0.0308 and $0.0281 respectively, both rising and offering dynamic support should price test lower levels. Moreover, the price remains comfortably above the 200 EMA on higher timeframes, indicating that the broader trend is still favorable for bulls, assuming critical support at $0.0305 holds.

While technical support remains solid, the on-chain data raises concerns. According to Coinglass, PENGU saw a significant net spot outflow of $2.89 million on July 19. This negative flow suggests that recent buyers are either taking profits or reallocating funds elsewhere, reducing the likelihood of immediate follow-through on the recent rally. Without fresh capital entering the market, resistance levels are likely to hold firm in the short term. The lack of sustained inflows also aligns with the price’s repeated failures to hold above $0.034, reinforcing the view that distribution is occurring near the highs.

Pudgy Penguins is showing all the signs of a maturing asset transitioning from hype-driven volatility to technically structured trading. The current symmetrical triangle suggests a breakout is near, but low momentum, overbought indicators, and net outflows are temporarily suppressing upward progress. A decisive move above $0.0328, with strong volume, will likely pave the way to $0.0355 and higher targets. However, failure to defend $0.0305 could trigger a pullback toward $0.028 or lower. For now, PENGU remains technically bullish on higher timeframes, but short-term caution is warranted.

According to the analyst's forecast, Pudgy Penguins (PENGU) is expected to see significant price movements over the next few years. By 2025, the token could range between $0.026 and $0.038, with a mean price of $0.032. In 2026, the forecast suggests a range of $0.030 to $0.050, with a mean of $0.040. By 2027, the price could be between $0.035 and $0.065, with a mean of $0.055. In 2028, the range is projected to be $0.045 to $0.085, with a mean of $0.070. By 2029, the token could reach between $0.060 and $0.120, with a mean of $0.095. Finally, by 2030, the forecast suggests a range of $0.080 to $0.160, with a mean of $0.130. These projections are based on various factors, including market trends, technological advancements, and the overall adoption of the token within the Web3 space.